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      Harborview Burns – 1974 to 2009

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          Abstract

          Background

          Burn demographics, prevention and care have changed considerably since the 1970s. The objectives were to 1) identify new and confirm previously described changes, 2) make comparisons to the American Burn Association National Burn Repository, 3) determine when the administration of fluids in excess of the Baxter formula began and to identify potential causes, and 4) model mortality over time, during a 36-year period (1974–2009) at the Harborview Burn Center in Seattle, WA, USA.

          Methods and Findings

          14,266 consecutive admissions were analyzed in five-year periods and many parameters compared to the National Burn Repository. Fluid resuscitation was compared in five-year periods from 1974 to 2009. Mortality was modeled with the rBaux model. Many changes are highlighted at the end of the manuscript including 1) the large increase in numbers of total and short-stay admissions, 2) the decline in numbers of large burn injuries, 3) that unadjusted case fatality declined to the mid-1980s but has changed little during the past two decades, 4) that race/ethnicity and payer status disparity exists, and 5) that the trajectory to death changed with fewer deaths occurring after seven days post-injury. Administration of fluids in excess of the Baxter formula during resuscitation of uncomplicated injuries was evident at least by the early 1990s and has continued to the present; the cause is likely multifactorial but pre-hospital fluids, prophylactic tracheal intubation and opioids may be involved.

          Conclusions

          1) The dramatic changes include the rise in short-stay admissions; as a result, the model of burn care practiced since the 1970s is still required but is no longer sufficient. 2) Fluid administration in excess of the Baxter formula with uncomplicated injuries began at least two decades ago. 3) Unadjusted case fatality declined to ∼6% in the mid-1980s and changed little since then. The rBaux mortality model is quite accurate.

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          Most cited references78

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          Objective estimates of the probability of death from burn injuries.

          Over the past 20 years, there has been remarkable improvement in the chances of survival of patients treated in burn centers. A simple, accurate system for objectively estimating the probability of death would be useful in counseling patients and making medical decisions. We conducted a retrospective review of all 1665 patients with acute burn injuries admitted from 1990 to 1994 to Massachusetts General Hospital and the Shriners Burns Institute in Boston. Using logistic-regression analysis, we developed probability estimates for the prediction of mortality based on a minimal set of well-defined variables. The resulting mortality formula was used to determine whether changes in mortality have occurred since 1984, and it was tested prospectively on all 530 patients with acute burn injuries admitted in 1995 or 1996. Of the 1665 patients (mean [+/-SD] age, 21+/-20 years; mean burn size, 14+/-20 percent of body-surface area), 1598 (96 percent) lived to discharge. The mean length of stay was 21+/-29 days. Three risk factors for death were identified: age greater than 60 years, more than 40 percent of body-surface area burned, and inhalation injury. The mortality formula we developed predicts 0.3 percent, 3 percent, 33 percent, or approximately 90 percent mortality, depending on whether zero, one, two, or three risk factors are present. The results of the prospective test of the formula were similar. A large increase in the proportion of patients who chose not to be resuscitated complicated comparisons of mortality over time. The probability of mortality after burns is low and can be predicted soon after injury on the basis of simple, objective clinical criteria.
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            Simplified estimates of the probability of death after burn injuries: extending and updating the baux score.

            : Generations of clinicians have used the Baux score, defined as the sum of age in years and percent body burn, to predict percent mortality after trauma, but advances in burn care have rendered the predictions of this score too pessimistic. Additionally, this score does not include the effects of inhalation injury. : We revised the Baux score to include inhalation injury and recalibrated its predictions using a single-term logistic regression model developed using data on 39,888 burned patients provided by the national burn repository. We compared this revised Baux score to a more complex logistic regression model derived from the same data set and predictors. : A preliminary logistic regression model showed that age and percent burn contribute almost equally to mortality and further that the presence of inhalation injury added the equivalent of 17 years (or 17% burn). These observations suggested a revised Baux Score:Age + Percent Burn + 17 * (Inhalation Injury, 1 = yes, 0 = no)A logistic model based on the Revised Baux Score performed well, but a more complex model obtained using modern statistical model building tools had better discrimination and calibration. : Our proposed revised Baux score is simple enough for mental calculation, and its inverse logit transformation (provided with a calculator or nomogram) can provide precise predictions of mortality. Better predictions can be obtained using our more complex statistical model. Burn surgeons and nurses accustomed to using the original Baux score may welcome an updated version.
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              Meta-analysis of early excision of burns.

              This meta-analysis sought to establish if early excision and grafting is better or equivalent to the conservative treatment of burns in both children and adults with minor or major burns. The outcomes of interest are mortality, wound healing time, duration of sepsis, operating hours, complications of surgery, length of hospital stay, blood transfusion requirements and long term morbidity like joint contractures and hypertrophic scarring. We searched MEDLINE (1966-July 2004), EMBASE (1980-August 2004) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) with the keywords 'early excision' and 'burns'. This yielded 441 articles of which 15 were randomized controlled trials. Only six trials met the inclusion criteria. There was a significant reduction in mortality with early excision of burns when compared with traditional treatment only in patients without inhalational injury (RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.65). The blood transfusion requirement is significantly higher in the early excision group but the length of hospital stay was significantly shorter (WMD -8.89, 95% CI -14.28 to -3.50). There was no conclusive evidence on the difference between the two groups in terms of duration of sepsis, wound healing time and skin graft take. Early excision of burns is beneficial in reducing mortality (in patients without inhalational injury), length of hospital stay. The only drawback is the greater volume of blood loss.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2012
                5 July 2012
                : 7
                : 7
                : e40086
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
                [2 ]Department of Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
                [3 ]Departments of Pediatrics and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
                [4 ]Harborview Injury Prevention and Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
                [5 ]Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
                [6 ]Division of Trauma, Department of Surgery, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America
                [7 ]Department of Anesthesiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
                [8 ]Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
                Université de Technologie de Compiègne, France
                Author notes

                Conceived and designed the experiments: LE DH FR KK TO TP SS GC NG. Performed the experiments: LE FR KK TO GC SH NG. Analyzed the data: LE DH FR KK TO TP SS PE EB GC NG. Wrote the paper: LE DH FR KK TO TP SS PE EB GC SH NG.

                Article
                PONE-D-12-10296
                10.1371/journal.pone.0040086
                3390332
                22792216
                18b94b03-ef19-41a5-8d00-0048f2fb2eb1
                Engrav et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
                History
                : 9 April 2012
                : 31 May 2012
                Page count
                Pages: 23
                Categories
                Research Article
                Medicine
                Critical Care and Emergency Medicine
                Epidemiology
                Clinical Epidemiology
                Disease Informatics
                Social Epidemiology
                Non-Clinical Medicine
                Health Care Policy
                Health Statistics
                Health Systems Strengthening
                Health Care Providers
                Health Services Research
                Surgery
                Burn Management

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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