44
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
1 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: found
      Is Open Access

      Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality

      research-article
      a , * , , b , c , d , d , e , f , f , g , b , d , h , i , i , j , a , k , l , m , n , o , p , q , r , s , t , u , v , w , t , t , x , Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network
      (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab), (Collab)
      Environmental Epidemiology
      Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
      Land-use and land-cover change, Sustainable land use, Deforestation, Temperature, Mortality

      Read this article at

      ScienceOpenPublisherPMC
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          Background:

          Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature–mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (sustainability). In the second LULCC scenario, sustainability is implemented only in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries (inequality).

          Methods:

          Using the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) dataset on mortality from 823 locations in 52 countries and territories, we estimated the temperature–mortality exposure–response functions (ERFs). The LULCC and noLULCC scenarios were implemented in three fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs): Community Earth System Model, Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, and European Consortium Earth System Model. Next, using temperature from the ESMs’ simulations and the estimated location-specific ERFs, we assessed the temperature-related impact on mortality for the LULCC and noLULCC scenarios around the mid and end century.

          Results:

          Under sustainability, the multimodel mean changes in excess mortality range from −1.1 to +0.6 percentage points by 2050–2059 across all locations and from −1.4 to +0.5 percentage points by 2090–2099. Under inequality, these vary from −0.7 to +0.9 percentage points by 2050–2059 and from −1.3 to +2 percentage points by 2090–2099.

          Conclusions:

          While an unequal socioeconomic development and unsustainable land use could increase the burden of heat-related mortality in most regions, globally sustainable land use has the potential to reduce it in some locations. However, the total (cold and heat) impact on mortality is very location specific and strongly depends on the underlying climate change scenario due to nonlinearity in the temperature–mortality relationship.

          Related collections

          Most cited references39

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: not found
          • Article: not found

          Matplotlib: A 2D Graphics Environment

            • Record: found
            • Abstract: not found
            • Book: not found

            ggplot2

              • Record: found
              • Abstract: not found
              • Article: not found

              Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems

                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Environ Epidemiol
                Environ Epidemiol
                EE9
                Environmental Epidemiology
                Lippincott Williams & Wilkins (Hagerstown, MD )
                2474-7882
                December 2024
                21 October 2024
                : 8
                : 6
                : e337
                Affiliations
                [a ]CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
                [b ]Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
                [c ]Department of Environment, Universiteit Gent, Q-ForestLab, Ghent, Belgium
                [d ]Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, Germany
                [e ]Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
                [f ]Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
                [g ] International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
                [h ]Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
                [i ]Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
                [j ]Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen, Germany
                [k ]Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
                [l ]Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain
                [m ]CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain
                [n ]Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
                [o ]School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
                [p ]Environmental Health Science & Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
                [q ]Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus
                [r ]School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
                [s ]School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Sciences, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
                [t ]Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
                [u ]Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications “G. Parenti,” University of Florence, Florence, Italy
                [v ]Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
                [w ]Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
                [x ]Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy
                Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Argentina
                Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
                National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
                Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
                INSPER, São Paulo, Brazil
                Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
                Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia, Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
                Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
                Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Mexico
                Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
                Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic
                Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
                Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
                Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland, Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
                Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland, Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
                Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
                Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
                IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany, Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
                Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece, Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
                Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
                School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
                University of Münster, Institute of Landscape Ecology, Climatology Research Group, Münster, Germany
                Geography and Urban Planning Department, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
                Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
                UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
                Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
                Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
                Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
                Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
                Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
                Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
                Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
                National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
                National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
                Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
                Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt,” Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
                Department of Hygiene, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
                Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
                Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
                Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal, EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal, Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
                Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
                Department of Environmental Health. Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
                Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Italy
                Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
                School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea, Institute of Ewha-SCL for Environmental Health (IESEH), Seoul, South Korea
                Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
                Department of Statistics and Computational Research. Universitat de València, València, Spain, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain
                Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
                Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwill, Switzerland, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
                Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan, Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
                National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
                Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
                Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
                Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
                Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan, University, Da Nang, Vietnam, Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
                Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
                Queen Mary University of London, Malta Campus, Triq l-Arċisqof Pietru Pace Victoria, Malta
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding Author. Address: Center for International Climate Research, Postboks 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway. E-mail: anton.orlov@ 123456cicero.oslo.no (A. Orlov).
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3670-597X
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-4632
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5183-6145
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-3960
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2927-9407
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9500-1986
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5516-6396
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7745
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6146-9839
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3965-1359
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7326-1290
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8890-6848
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2271-3568
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3345-6197
                Article
                EE-D-24-00024 00006
                10.1097/EE9.0000000000000337
                11495778
                39439814
                18e0d3f1-2c63-42dc-960c-7d28c2dc8bd3
                Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of The Environmental Epidemiology. All rights reserved.

                This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 21 February 2024
                : 8 August 2024
                Categories
                Original Research Article
                Custom metadata
                TRUE
                T

                land-use and land-cover change,sustainable land use,deforestation,temperature,mortality

                Comments

                Comment on this article

                Related Documents Log