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Abstract
We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific
period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that
are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is
applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe
to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell
and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all
four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast
to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted
for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family
size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer
birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being
adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.