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      The Societal Costs and Benefits of Commuter Bicycling: Simulating the Effects of Specific Policies Using System Dynamics Modeling

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          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          Background: Shifting to active modes of transport in the trip to work can achieve substantial co-benefits for health, social equity, and climate change mitigation. Previous integrated modeling of transport scenarios has assumed active transport mode share and has been unable to incorporate acknowledged system feedbacks.

          Objectives: We compared the effects of policies to increase bicycle commuting in a car-dominated city and explored the role of participatory modeling to support transport planning in the face of complexity.

          Methods: We used system dynamics modeling (SDM) to compare realistic policies, incorporating feedback effects, nonlinear relationships, and time delays between variables. We developed a system dynamics model of commuter bicycling through interviews and workshops with policy, community, and academic stakeholders. We incorporated best available evidence to simulate five policy scenarios over the next 40 years in Auckland, New Zealand. Injury, physical activity, fuel costs, air pollution, and carbon emissions outcomes were simulated.

          Results: Using the simulation model, we demonstrated the kinds of policies that would likely be needed to change a historical pattern of decline in cycling into a pattern of growth that would meet policy goals. Our model projections suggest that transforming urban roads over the next 40 years, using best practice physical separation on main roads and bicycle-friendly speed reduction on local streets, would yield benefits 10–25 times greater than costs.

          Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first integrated simulation model of future specific bicycling policies. Our projections provide practical evidence that may be used by health and transport policy makers to optimize the benefits of transport bicycling while minimizing negative consequences in a cost-effective manner. The modeling process enhanced understanding by a range of stakeholders of cycling as a complex system. Participatory SDM can be a helpful method for integrating health and environmental outcomes in transport and urban planning.

          Citation: Macmillan A, Connor J, Witten K, Kearns R, Rees D, Woodward A. 2014. The societal costs and benefits of commuter bicycling: simulating the effects of specific policies using system dynamics modeling. Environ Health Perspect 122:335–344;  http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307250

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          Business Dynamics : Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World

          John D. Sterman (2000)
          Today's leading authority on the subject of this text is the author, MIT Standish Professor of Management and Director of the System Dynamics Group, John D. Sterman. Sterman's objective is to explain, in a true textbook format, what system dynamics is, and how it can be successfully applied to solve business and organizational problems. System dynamics is both a currently utilized approach to organizational problem solving at the professional level, and a field of study in business, engineering, and social and physical sciences.
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            Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: urban land transport.

            James Woodcock, Phil Edwards, Cathryn Tonne … (2009)
            We used Comparative Risk Assessment methods to estimate the health effects of alternative urban land transport scenarios for two settings-London, UK, and Delhi, India. For each setting, we compared a business-as-usual 2030 projection (without policies for reduction of greenhouse gases) with alternative scenarios-lower-carbon-emission motor vehicles, increased active travel, and a combination of the two. We developed separate models that linked transport scenarios with physical activity, air pollution, and risk of road traffic injury. In both cities, we noted that reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through an increase in active travel and less use of motor vehicles had larger health benefits per million population (7332 disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] in London, and 12 516 in Delhi in 1 year) than from the increased use of lower-emission motor vehicles (160 DALYs in London, and 1696 in Delhi). However, combination of active travel and lower-emission motor vehicles would give the largest benefits (7439 DALYs in London, 12 995 in Delhi), notably from a reduction in the number of years of life lost from ischaemic heart disease (10-19% in London, 11-25% in Delhi). Although uncertainties remain, climate change mitigation in transport should benefit public health substantially. Policies to increase the acceptability, appeal, and safety of active urban travel, and discourage travel in private motor vehicles would provide larger health benefits than would policies that focus solely on lower-emission motor vehicles.
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              Non-vigorous physical activity and all-cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

              James Woodcock, Oscar Franco, Nicola Orsini … (2011)
              Although previous studies have found physical activity to be associated with lower mortality, the dose-response relationship remains unclear. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we quantify the dose-response relationship of non-vigorous physical activity and all-cause mortality. We aimed to include all cohort studies in adult populations with a sample size of more than 10 000 participants that estimated the effect of different levels of light or moderate physical activity on all-cause mortality. We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane (DARE), Web of Science and Global Health (June 2009). We used dose-response meta-regression models to estimate the relation between non-vigorous physical activity and mortality. We identified 22 studies that met our inclusion criteria, containing 977 925 (334 738 men and 643 187 women) people. There was considerable variation between the studies in their categorization of physical activity and adjustment for potential confounders. We found that 2.5 h/week (equivalent to 30 min daily of moderate intensity activity on 5 days a week) compared with no activity was associated with a reduction in mortality risk of 19% [95% confidence interval (CI) 15-24], while 7 h/week of moderate activity compared with no activity reduced the mortality risk by 24% (95% CI 19-29). We found a smaller effect in studies that looked at walking alone. Being physically active reduces the risk of all-cause mortality. The largest benefit was found from moving from no activity to low levels of activity, but even at high levels of activity benefits accrue from additional activity.
              Article 0 comments Cited 188 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Environ Health Perspect
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Environ. Health Perspect
                Journal ID (publisher-id): EHP
                Title: Environmental Health Perspectives
                Publisher: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
                ISSN (Print): 0091-6765
                ISSN (Electronic): 1552-9924
                Publication date (Electronic): 04 February 2014
                Publication date (Print): April 2014
                Volume: 122
                Issue: 4
                Pages: 335-344
                Affiliations
                [1 ]School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
                [2 ]Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
                [3 ]Social and Health Outcomes Research and Evaluation (SHORE), Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
                [4 ]School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
                [5 ]Synergia Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand
                Author notes
                Address correspondence to A. Macmillan, Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9056, New Zealand. Telephone: 64 3 479 7196. E-mail: alex.macmillan@ 123456otago.ac.nz
                Article
                Publisher ID: ehp.1307250
                DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1307250
                PMC ID: 3984216
                PubMed ID: 24496244
                SO-VID: 1961af0d-da1e-4ae2-8331-8df6d58d7ada
                License:

                Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from EHP may be reprinted freely. Use of materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, “Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives”); pertinent reference information should be provided for the article from which the material was reproduced. Articles from EHP, especially the News section, may contain photographs or illustrations copyrighted by other commercial organizations or individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from the holder of the copyright.

                History
                Date received : 19 June 2013
                Date accepted : 03 February 2014
                Date: 04 February 2014
                Date: 01 April 2014
                Categories
                Subject: Research

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health

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