Predictors of one-year mortality at hospital discharge after acute coronary syndromes: A new risk score from the EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients) study

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Abstract

Aims:

A reliable prediction tool is needed to identify acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients with high mortality risk after their initial hospitalization.

Methods:

EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients: NCT01171404) is a prospective cohort study of 10,568 consecutive hospital survivors after an ACS event (4943 ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 5625 non-ST-elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS)). Of these cases, 65.1% underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and 2.5% coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). Post-discharge mortality was recorded for up to two years. From over 50 potential predictor variables a new risk score for one-year mortality was developed using forward stepwise Cox regression, and examined for goodness-of-fit, discriminatory power, and external validation.

Results:

A total of 407 patients (3.9%) died within one year of discharge. We identified 12 highly significant independent predictors of mortality (in order of predictive strength): age, lower ejection fraction, poorer EQ-5D quality of life, elevated serum creatinine, in-hospital cardiac complications, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, elevated blood glucose, male gender, no PCI/CABG after NSTE-ACS, low hemoglobin, peripheral artery disease, on diuretics at discharge. When combined into a new risk score excellent discrimination was achieved ( c-statistic=0.81) and this was also validated on a large similar cohort (9907 patients) in Asia ( c=0.78). For both STEMI and NSTE-ACS there was a steep gradient in one-year mortality ranging from 0.5% in the lowest quintile to 18.2% in the highest decile. NSTE-ACS contributes over twice as many high-risk patients as STEMI.

Conclusions:

Post-discharge mortality for ACS patients remains of concern. Our new user-friendly risk score available on www.acsrisk.org can readily identify who is at high risk.

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Most cited references 8

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EuroQol: the current state of play.

R. Brooks (1996)

The EuroQol Group first met in 1987 to test the feasibility of jointly developing a standardised non-disease-specific instrument for describing and valuing health-related quality of life. From the outset the Group has been multi-country, multi-centre, and multi-disciplinary. The EuroQol instrument is intended to complement other forms of quality of life measures, and it has been purposefully developed to generate a cardinal index of health, thus giving it considerable potential for use in economic evaluation. Considerable effort has been invested by the Group in the development and valuation aspects of health status measurement. Earlier work was reported upon in 1990; this paper is a second 'corporate' effort detailing subsequent developments. The concepts underlying the EuroQol framework are explored with particular reference to the generic nature of the instrument. The valuation task is reviewed and some evidence on the methodological requirements for measurement is presented. A number of special issues of considerable interest and concern to the Group are discussed: the modelling of data, the duration of health states and the problems surrounding the state 'dead'. An outline of some of the applications of the EuroQol instrument is presented and a brief commentary on the Group's ongoing programme of work concludes the paper.

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A validated prediction model for all forms of acute coronary syndrome: estimating the risk of 6-month postdischarge death in an international registry.

Kim Eagle, Michael Lim, Omar Dabbous … (2004)

Accurate estimation of risk for untoward outcomes after patients have been hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) may help clinicians guide the type and intensity of therapy. To develop a simple decision tool for bedside risk estimation of 6-month mortality in patients surviving admission for an ACS. A multinational registry, involving 94 hospitals in 14 countries, that used data from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) to develop and validate a multivariable stepwise regression model for death during 6 months postdischarge. From 17,142 patients presenting with an ACS from April 1, 1999, to March 31, 2002, and discharged alive, 15,007 (87.5%) had complete 6-month follow-up and represented the development cohort for a model that was subsequently tested on a validation cohort of 7638 patients admitted from April 1, 2002, to December 31, 2003. All-cause mortality during 6 months postdischarge after admission for an ACS. The 6-month mortality rates were similar in the development (n = 717; 4.8%) and validation cohorts (n = 331; 4.7%). The risk-prediction tool for all forms of ACS identified 9 variables predictive of 6-month mortality: older age, history of myocardial infarction, history of heart failure, increased pulse rate at presentation, lower systolic blood pressure at presentation, elevated initial serum creatinine level, elevated initial serum cardiac biomarker levels, ST-segment depression on presenting electrocardiogram, and not having a percutaneous coronary intervention performed in hospital. The c statistics for the development and validation cohorts were 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. The GRACE 6-month postdischarge prediction model is a simple, robust tool for predicting mortality in patients with ACS. Clinicians may find it simple to use and applicable to clinical practice.

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Underestimated and under-recognized: the late consequences of acute coronary syndrome (GRACE UK-Belgian Study).

Herbert Van de Sompel, Jonathan Manning, Kathryn Carruthers … (2010)

To define the long-term outcome of patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome [ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and non-STEMI and unstable angina acute coronary syndrome (ACS) without biomarker elevation] and to test the hypothesis that the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score predicts mortality and death/MI at 5 years. In the GRACE long-term study, UK and Belgian centres prospectively recruited and followed ACS patients for a median of 5 years (1797 days). Primary outcome events: deaths, cardiovascular deaths (CVDs) and MIs. Secondary events: stroke and re-hospitalization for ACS. There were 736 deaths, 19.8% (482 CVDs, 13%) and 347 (9.3%) MIs (>24 h), 261 strokes (7.7%), and 452 (17%) subsequent revascularizations. Rehospitalization was common: average 1.6 per patient; 31.2% had >1 admission, 9.2% had 5+ admissions. These events were despite high rates of guideline indicated therapies. The GRACE score was highly predictive of all-cause death, CVD, and CVD/MI at 5 years (death: χ(2) likelihood ratio 632; Wald 709.9, P< 0.0001, C-statistic 0.77; for CVD C-statistic 0.75, P < 0.0001; CVD/MI C-statistic 0.70, P < 0.0001). Compared with the low-risk GRACE stratum (ESC Guideline criteria), those with intermediate [hazard ratio (HR) 2.14, 95% CI 1.63, 2.81] and those with high-risk (HR 6.36, 95% CI 4.95, 8.16) had two- and six-fold higher risk of later death (Cox proportional hazard). A landmark analysis after 6 months confirmed that the GRACE score predicted long-term death (χ(2) likelihood ratio 265.4; Wald 289.5, P < 0.0001). Although in-hospital rates of death and MI are higher following STEMI, the cumulative rates of death (and CVD) were not different, by class of ACS, over the duration of follow-up (Wilcoxon = 1.5597, df = 1, P = 0.21). At 5 years after STEMI 269/1403 (19%) died; after non-STEMI 262/1170 (22%) after unstable angina (UA) 149/850 (17%). Two-thirds (68%) of STEMI deaths occurred after initial hospital discharge, but this was 86% for non-STEMI and 97% for UA. The GRACE risk score predicts early and 5 year death and CVD/MI. Five year morbidity and mortality are as high in patients following non-ST MI and UA as seen following STEMI. Their morbidity burden is high (MI, stroke, readmissions) and the substantial late mortality in non-STE ACS is under-recognized. The findings highlight the importance of pursuing novel approaches to diminish long-term risk.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care

Journal ID (publisher-id): ACC

Journal ID (hwp): spacc

Title: European Heart Journal. Acute Cardiovascular Care

Publisher: SAGE Publications (Sage UK: London, England )

ISSN (Print): 2048-8726

ISSN (Electronic): 2048-8734

Publication date (Print and electronic): December 2015

Publication date (Print): December 2015

Volume: 4

Issue: 6

Pages: 509-517

Affiliations

[1 ]London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

[2 ]Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Spain

[3 ]Medical Department, AstraZeneca France, France

[4 ]AstraZeneca Observational Research Center, Spain

[5 ]AstraZeneca Medical Evidence Center, USA

[6 ]Interuniversity Centre for Health Economics Research UGent, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium

[7 ]Hôpital Européen Georges Pompidou, René Descartes University, France

[8 ]Peking University First Hospital, China

[9 ]University Hospitals Leuven, Belgium

Author notes

[*]Stuart Pocock, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK. Email: Stuart.Pocock@ 123456lshtm.ac.uk

Article

Publisher ID: 10.1177_2048872614554198

DOI: 10.1177/2048872614554198

PMC ID: 4657391

PubMed ID: 25301783

SO-VID: 1b2449ce-9e07-4dd1-b8e0-482cd43cdba4

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This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License ( http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page ( http://www.uk.sagepub.com/aboutus/openaccess.htm).

Predictors of one-year mortality at hospital discharge after acute coronary syndromes: A new risk score from the EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients) study

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Most cited references 8

EuroQol: the current state of play.

A validated prediction model for all forms of acute coronary syndrome: estimating the risk of 6-month postdischarge death in an international registry.

Underestimated and under-recognized: the late consequences of acute coronary syndrome (GRACE UK-Belgian Study).

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