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      Modeling the risk of ship grounding—a literature review from a risk management perspective

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          Most cited references53

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          Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment

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            The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems.

            Safety assessments of technological systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical process facilities, and hazardous waste repositories, require the investigation of the occurrence and consequences of rare events. The subjectivistic (Bayesian) theory of probability is the appropriate framework within which expert opinions, which are essential to the quantification process, can be combined with experimental results and statistical observations to produce quantitative measures of the risks from these systems. A distinction is made between uncertainties in physical models and state-of-knowledge uncertainties about the parameters and assumptions of these models. The proper role of past and future relative frequencies and several issues associated with elicitation and use of expert opinions are discussed.
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              On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience.

              Terje Aven (2011)
              Recently, considerable attention has been paid to a systems-based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis. It is argued that risk, vulnerability, and resilience are inherently and fundamentally functions of the states of the system and its environment. Vulnerability is defined as the manifestation of the inherent states of the system that can be subjected to a natural hazard or be exploited to adversely affect that system, whereas resilience is defined as the ability of the system to withstand a major disruption within acceptable degradation parameters and to recover within an acceptable time, and composite costs, and risks. Risk, on the other hand, is probability based, defined by the probability and severity of adverse effects (i.e., the consequences). In this article, we look more closely into this approach. It is observed that the key concepts are inconsistent in the sense that the uncertainty (probability) dimension is included for the risk definition but not for vulnerability and resilience. In the article, we question the rationale for this inconsistency. The suggested approach is compared with an alternative framework that provides a logically defined structure for risk, vulnerability, and resilience, where all three concepts are incorporating the uncertainty (probability) dimension.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs
                WMU J Marit Affairs
                Springer Science and Business Media LLC
                1651-436X
                1654-1642
                October 2014
                December 18 2013
                October 2014
                : 13
                : 2
                : 269-297
                Article
                10.1007/s13437-013-0056-3
                1bed6e7a-ea8d-458d-9f5c-eea9bc2b94e2
                © 2014

                http://www.springer.com/tdm

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