In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected an average global air temperature increase of 1.1-6.4°C by the end of the 21st century. Although the tropics are predicted to experience less extreme temperature increases than regions of higher latitude, tropical ectotherms live close to their thermal limits, and are thus particularly vulnerable to increases in temperature. In this study, we examined how predicted patterns of global warming will affect survival and sexual traits in the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata). Guppies were exposed from birth to one of four temperature treatments: 23, 25 (control), 28 or 30°C. We measured brood survival and, at sexual maturity, male ornamentation, sperm traits and immune response. Our results show that increases in temperature result in guppies that have shorter, slower sperm but that there is an optimum temperature for ornamental hue at 28°C. Given the importance of sperm quality for reproduction, these results suggest population viability could be affected by warming. However, we found no difference in brood survival or immune response to a novel antigen across the treatments, indicating that survival may not be as vulnerable as previously thought. Overall, our data suggest that male sexual traits, and in particular sperm performance, are more sensitive than survival to a warming environment.
