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      Simulating deforestation and carbon loss in Amazonia: impacts in Brazil's Roraima state from reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho).

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          Abstract

          Reconstruction of Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) would allow for access from the "arc of deforestation" in the southern part of Brazil's Amazon region to vast blocks of forests in central and northern Amazonia. Building roads is known to be a major driver of deforestation, allowing entry of squatters, and other actors. Rather than deforestation along the highway route, here we consider the road's potential for stimulating deforestation in a separate location, approximately 550 km north of BR-319's endpoint in Manaus. Reconstructing BR-319 has great potential impact to start a new wave of migration to this remote region. The southern portion of the state of Roraima, the focus of our study, is already connected to Manaus by Highway BR-174. We modeled deforestation in southern Roraima and simulated carbon emissions between 2007 and 2030 under four scenarios. Simulations used the AGROECO model in DINAMICA-EGO © software. Two scenarios were considered with reconstruction of BR-319 and two without this road connection. For each of the two possibilities regarding BR-319, simulations were developed for (1) a "conservation" (CONSERV) scenario that assumes the creation of a series of protected areas, and (2) a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario that assumes no additional protected areas. Results show that by 2030, with BR-319 rebuilt, deforestation carbon emissions would increase between 19% (CONSERV) and 42% (BAU) over and above those corresponding to no-road scenarios.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Environ Manage
          Environmental management
          Springer Nature
          1432-1009
          0364-152X
          Feb 2015
          : 55
          : 2
          Affiliations
          [1 ] National Institute Research in Amazonia (INPA), Av. André Araújo, 2936, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP: 69067-375, Brazil.
          Article
          10.1007/s00267-014-0408-6
          25472831
          1ce96c16-7ad8-41d3-aeba-a99a5a5c8267
          History

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