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      Preventing type 2 diabetes: systematic review of studies of cost-effectiveness of lifestyle programmes and metformin, with and without screening, for pre-diabetes

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          Abstract

          Objective

          Explore the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions and metformin in reducing subsequent incidence of type 2 diabetes, both alone and in combination with a screening programme to identify high-risk individuals.

          Design

          Systematic review of economic evaluations.

          Data sources and eligibility criteria

          Database searches (Embase, Medline, PreMedline, NHS EED) and citation tracking identified economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions or metformin alone or in combination with screening programmes in people at high risk of developing diabetes. The International Society for Pharmaco-economics and Outcomes Research’s Questionnaire to Assess Relevance and Credibility of Modelling Studies for Informing Healthcare Decision Making was used to assess study quality.

          Results

          27 studies were included; all had evaluated lifestyle interventions and 12 also evaluated metformin. Primary studies exhibited considerable heterogeneity in definitions of pre-diabetes and intensity and duration of lifestyle programmes. Lifestyle programmes and metformin appeared to be cost effective in preventing diabetes in high-risk individuals (median incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £7490/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and £8428/QALY, respectively) but economic estimates varied widely between studies. Intervention-only programmes were in general more cost effective than programmes that also included a screening component. The longer the period evaluated, the more cost-effective interventions appeared. In the few studies that evaluated other economic considerations, budget impact of prevention programmes was moderate (0.13%–0.2% of total healthcare budget), financial payoffs were delayed (by 9–14 years) and impact on incident cases of diabetes was limited (0.1%–1.6% reduction). There was insufficient evidence to answer the question of (1) whether lifestyle programmes are more cost effective than metformin or (2) whether low-intensity lifestyle interventions are more cost effective than the more intensive lifestyle programmes that were tested in trials.

          Conclusions

          The economics of preventing diabetes are complex. There is some evidence that diabetes prevention programmes are cost effective, but the evidence base to date provides few clear answers regarding design of prevention programmes because of differences in denominator populations, definitions, interventions and modelling assumptions.

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          Most cited references 64

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          Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030.

          The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations' population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. These findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
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            Effects of diet and exercise in preventing NIDDM in people with impaired glucose tolerance. The Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study.

            Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) have a high risk of developing NIDDM. The purpose of this study was to determine whether diet and exercise interventions in those with IGT may delay the development of NIDDM, i.e., reduce the incidence of NIDDM, and thereby reduce the overall incidence of diabetic complications, such as cardiovascular, renal, and retinal disease, and the excess mortality attributable to these complications. In 1986, 110,660 men and women from 33 health care clinics in the city of Da Qing, China, were screened for IGT and NIDDM. Of these individuals, 577 were classified (using World Health Organization criteria) as having IGT. Subjects were randomized by clinic into a clinical trial, either to a control group or to one of three active treatment groups: diet only, exercise only, or diet plus exercise. Follow-up evaluation examinations were conducted at 2-year intervals over a 6-year period to identify subjects who developed NIDDM. Cox's proportional hazard analysis was used to determine if the incidence of NIDDM varied by treatment assignment. The cumulative incidence of diabetes at 6 years was 67.7% (95% CI, 59.8-75.2) in the control group compared with 43.8% (95% CI, 35.5-52.3) in the diet group, 41.1% (95% CI, 33.4-49.4) in the exercise group, and 46.0% (95% CI, 37.3-54.7) in the diet-plus-exercise group (P or = 25 kg/m2). In a proportional hazards analysis adjusted for differences in baseline BMI and fasting glucose, the diet, exercise, and diet-plus-exercise interventions were associated with 31% (P < 0.03), 46% (P < 0.0005), and 42% (P < 0.005) reductions in risk of developing diabetes, respectively. Diet and/or exercise interventions led to a significant decrease in the incidence of diabetes over a 6-year period among those with IGT.
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              The Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS): Lifestyle intervention and 3-year results on diet and physical activity.

              To describe the 1) lifestyle intervention used in the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study, 2) short- and long-term changes in diet and exercise behavior, and 3) effect of the intervention on glucose and lipid metabolism. There were 522 middle-aged, overweight subjects with impaired glucose tolerance who were randomized to either a usual care control group or an intensive lifestyle intervention group. The control group received general dietary and exercise advice at baseline and had an annual physician's examination. The subjects in the intervention group received additional individualized dietary counseling from a nutritionist. They were also offered circuit-type resistance training sessions and advised to increase overall physical activity. The intervention was the most intensive during the first year, followed by a maintenance period. The intervention goals were to reduce body weight, reduce dietary and saturated fat, and increase physical activity and dietary fiber. The intervention group showed significantly greater improvement in each intervention goal. After 1 and 3 years, weight reductions were 4.5 and 3.5 kg in the intervention group and 1.0 and 0.9 kg in the control group, respectively. Measures of glycemia and lipemia improved more in the intervention group. The intensive lifestyle intervention produced long-term beneficial changes in diet, physical activity, and clinical and biochemical parameters and reduced diabetes risk. This type of intervention is a feasible option to prevent type 2 diabetes and should be implemented in the primary health care system.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Open
                bmjopen
                bmjopen
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2044-6055
                2017
                15 November 2017
                : 7
                : 11
                Affiliations
                [1 ]departmentNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter , University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
                [2 ]departmentInstitute of Health & Society , University of Newcastle , Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
                [3 ]departmentBlavatnik School of Government, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road , University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Samantha Roberts; samantha.roberts@ 123456gtc.ox.ac.uk
                Article
                bmjopen-2017-017184
                10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017184
                5695352
                29146638
                © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

                This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

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                Medicine

                type 2 diabetes, prevention, screening, health economics

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