Improvements in Long-Lead Prediction of Early-Summer Subtropical Frontal Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice

Abstract

Seasonal prediction of East Asia (EA) summer rainfall, especially with a longer-lead time, is in great demand, but still very challenging. The present study aims to make long-lead prediction of EA subtropical frontal rainfall (SFR) during early summer (May–June mean, MJ) by considering Arctic sea ice (ASI) variability as a new potential predictor. A MJ SFR index (SFRI), the leading principle component of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to the MJ precipitation anomaly over EA, is defined as the predictand. Analysis of 38-year observations (1979–2016) revealed three physically consequential predictors. A stronger SFRI is preceded by dipolar ASI anomaly in the previous autumn, a sea level pressure (SLP) dipole in the Eurasian continent, and a sea surface temperature anomaly tripole pattern in the tropical Pacific in the previous winter. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Okhotsk High, lower local SLP over EA, and a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high. These factors are controlling circulation features for a positive SFRI. A physical-empirical model was established to predict SFRI by combining the three predictors. Hindcasting was performed for the 1979–2016 period, which showed a hindcast prediction skill that was, unexpectedly, substantially higher than that of a four-dynamical models’ ensemble prediction for the 1979–2010 period (0.72 versus 0.47). Note that ASI variation is a new predictor compared with signals originating from the tropics to mid-latitudes. The long-lead hindcast skill was notably lower without the ASI signals included, implying the high practical value of ASI variation in terms of long-lead seasonal prediction of MJ EA rainfall.

Journal

Journal ID (publisher-id): JOUC

Title: Journal of Ocean University of China

Publisher: Science Press and Springer (China )

ISSN (Electronic): 1672-5182

Publication date (Electronic): 14 May 2019

Publication date (Print): 01 June 2019

Volume: 18

Issue: 3

Pages: 542-552

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

² Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266100, China

³ Ningbo Collaborative Innovation Center of Nonlinear Harzard System of Ocean and Atmosphere, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China

Author notes

*Corresponding author: HUANG Fei

Article

Publisher ID: s11802-019-3875-9

DOI: 10.1007/s11802-019-3875-9

Copyright statement: Copyright © Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2019.

License:

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Product

Self URI (journal-page): https://www.springer.com/journal/11802