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      A new paradigm to measure probabilistic reasoning and a possible answer to the question why psychosis-prone individuals jump to conclusions.

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          Abstract

          Jumping to conclusions (JTC) distinguishes patients with schizophrenia from both healthy and psychiatric controls. JTC is typically assessed using the beads task, which, however, faces a number of limitations as to its interpretability and reliability. The present study set out to validate a new paradigm to assess JTC: the box task. We adopted a psychometric psychosis proneness approach and divided a large population sample into participants who scored high versus low on a scale tapping psychosis-like experiences. Participants performed a variant of the original beads task along with a new JTC task, the box task, with or without time pressure. The box task requires participants to infer which of two ball colors will be more prevalent in a matrix of boxes. The box task and the beads task were significantly correlated at a medium effect size, thus demonstrating criterion validity for the box task. As hypothesized, participants who scored high on psychosis-like experiences showed particularly strong JTC and a decreased decision threshold relative to low scorers, especially in the box task version with time pressure; in contrast, group differences in the beads tasks only achieved trend-wise significance. Mediation analyses showed that fewer draws to decisions were predicted by either a lower decision threshold or by higher initial probability estimates for the dominant item. The study establishes the criterion and construct validity of a new JTC task. Its advantages over the traditional beads task are better comprehensibility and usability; multiple parallel versions can be created thus raising reliability. (PsycINFO Database Record

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          J Abnorm Psychol
          Journal of abnormal psychology
          American Psychological Association (APA)
          1939-1846
          0021-843X
          May 2017
          : 126
          : 4
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy.
          [2 ] Department of Psychology, University of Freiburg.
          [3 ] School of Psychology, Flinders University Adelaide.
          [4 ] II Department of Psychiatry, Medical University of Warsaw.
          [5 ] Center for Gender Research and Early Detection, University of Basel Psychiatric Clinics.
          Article
          2017-10879-001
          10.1037/abn0000262
          28277733
          1f8da79e-f794-485c-8442-170f764291c8
          History

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