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      A clinical scoring system to predict long-term arthralgia in Chikungunya disease: A cohort study

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          Abstract

          Background

          Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has caused worldwide epidemics that impose a major burden on health systems. Approximately half of infected individuals develop chronic debilitating arthralgia, affecting their quality of life. Here, we identified the relevant clinical and demographic variables in the acute phase of CHIKV infection prospectively linked to chronic arthralgia to elaborate a prognostic scoring system.

          Methods

          Acute CHIKV infection cases (n = 134) confirmed by serology or molecular test were examined <10 days of disease onset and followed for one year to evaluate for disease progression. Potential risk factors for chronic arthralgia were evaluated by multivariate analysis to develop a prognostic scoring system, which was subsequently tested in an independent validation cohort consisting of 42 individuals.

          Results

          A total of 107 out of 134 (80%) acute CHIKV-confirmed cases from the derivation cohort were re-examined one year after enrollment. Chronic arthralgia post-CHIKV infection was diagnosed in 64 (60%). Five of the 12 parameters evaluated in the acute phase were statistically associated with persistent arthralgia and were further tested by Bayesian analysis. These variables were weighted to yield a prognosis score denominated SHERA (Sex, Hypertension, Edema, Retroocular pain, Age), which exhibited 81.3% accuracy in predicting long-term arthralgia post-CHIKV infection in the derivation cohort, and 76.5% accuracy in the validation cohort.

          Conclusions

          The simplified and externally validated prognostic scoring system, SHERA, is a useful method to screen acutely CHIKV-infected patients at elevated risk of chronic arthralgia who will benefit from specific interventions. This tool could guide public health policies, particularly in resource-constrained settings.

          Author summary

          Debilitating articular pain frequently occurs as a consequence of Chikungunya virus infection, affecting individuals' quality of life for a long time. Here we present a simple tool to predict people at risk to remain with long-term articular pain after Chikungunya infection. We evaluated 134 patients acutely affected by Chikungunya virus searching for characteristics previously described as related to persistent symptoms. We examined about 80% of those individuals after one year to identify those with persistent arthralgia. We detected five features that represent good predictors and developed a scoring system named SHERA ( www.sheracalculator.com/shera), the acronyms of Sex (female), Hypertension, Edema, Retroocular pain and Age (>26y). SHERA can correctly predict 8 out of every 10 Chikungunya infected individuals that will persist with articular pain symptoms at least one year after disease onset. These results were confirmed in the second group of patients from another city affected by Chikungunya outbreak.

          The easy-to-use scoring system can be applied in areas with limited access to health support, helping to identify the ones who will need special care and benefit from early intervention.

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          Most cited references21

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          Chikungunya Virus-associated Long-term Arthralgia: A 36-month Prospective Longitudinal Study

          Introduction Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an arthropod-borne virus that belongs to the Alphavirus genus. Chikungunya disease is characterized by polyarthralgia, sometimes associated with rash. The articular symptoms, often debilitating, usually resolve within weeks, but have been reported to last for months, even though the natural history of this infection has not been precisely studied in prospective studies [1], [2], [3]. In 2005, CHIKV emerged in islands of Indian Ocean including La Réunion, a French overseas department, and approximately one third of the inhabitants (i.e. ∼300,000) was infected at the end of the outbreak in 2006 [4], [5]. Compared to earlier outbreaks, this episode occurred in a highly medicalized area. Moreover previously unreported severe forms of Chikungunya were observed, such as encephalopathy [6], [7], and mother-to-child CHIKV transmission was demonstrated, leading to severe neonatal CHIKV infection [5]. In the wake of this outbreak, CHIKV also re-emerged in India with over 1 million cases [8], [9]. In 2007, CHIKV emerged for the first time in Europe, causing an outbreak in Italy [10]. We have described the clinical and biological features of acute CHIKV infection in a prospective cohort of patients with positive blood CHIKV RT-PCR [11]. It included all patients referred to the Emergency Department in Saint-Pierre de la Réunion with febrile arthralgia between March and May 2006. As little is known about long-term outcome of CHIKV infection, we conducted a prospective longitudinal study to describe in details the specific clinical and biological features of chronic arthralgia, as well as clinical signs associated to this pathology. We evaluated the consequences of long-term arthralgia on patients' daily and social life, looked for risk factors associated with them and estimated their economic impact. Materials and Methods Ethics & STROBE statement Ethical clearance was obtained from the «Comité de Protection des Personnes Sud-Ouest et Outre-Mer III» of Saint-Pierre, La Réunion, Paris (CCP 2008/65, n° 2008-A00999-46). CHIK-IMMUNOPATH received approval from the ethical committee for studies with human subjects (CPP) of Bordeaux and the National Commission for Informatics and Liberty (CNIL). Written informed consent was obtained from patients included in the CHIK-IMMUNOPATH study. The study respects the STROBE statement (supporting information S1). Patients We studied a cohort of patients (n = 180) enrolled for febrile arthralgia to the Emergency Department of the Groupe Hospitalier Sud Réunion between March 2005 and May 2006 [11]. Patients were interviewed by telephone 4, 6, 14 and 36 months (M4, M6, M14 and M36) after the viremic phase, using the same questionnaire as that used at day 0 (D0) (supporting information S2). At M36 after the acute phase, all patients who agreed to participate to a complementary study (CHIK-IMMUNOPATH) and who were arthralgic were interviewed and underwent clinical examination. Among them, 22 patients with arthralgia (ART+) and 20 patients without persisting arthralgia (ART−) were randomly selected from the cohort. They signed a written consent and a blood sample was collected. Laboratory tests performed at M36 Blood cell count was performed and viremia was tested by qRT-PCR [12]. Both serum anti-CHIKV IgG and IgM specific antibodies were screened. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was performed with CHIKV antigen [12]. The avidity of anti-CHIKV IgG was tested by ELISA in the presence or absence of urea 8 M [13]. Geometric Mean Antibody Titer (GMAT) was calculated as previously described [14]. Plasmatic protein electrophoresis was performed and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration was measured. The presence of anti-nuclear, anti-dsDNA, anti-endomysium autoantibodies, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody (ACCP) and cryoglobulinemia were investigated. Samples were transported at 37°C to research cryoglobulins. Sera were sent to Myriad RBM (Austin,Texas) and analyzed by Luminex using the inflammation MAP. Assays are run according to CLIA guidelines and in all cases, >100 beads per analyte were measured with CV 2) (Figure 2C). Despite an increase of arthralgic sites at M36, there is an overall significant decrease of the number of painful joints during the study period (p 70 45 27 (60.0%) 0.62 (0.21–1.79) Hospitalization at D0 No 101 61 (60.4) 1 0.66 Yes 46 26 (56.5) 0.85 (0.42–1.73) Viral quantification at D0 (copies/mL) ≤100.000 70 39 (55.7) 1 0.41 >100.000 77 48 (62.3) 1.32 (0.68–2.54) CRP at D0 (unit) 10 126 79 (62.7) 3.12 (1.16–8.38) Missing 1 1 (100.0) No estimable Diabetes at D0 No 109 58 (53.2) 1 0.01 Yes 38 29 (76.3) 2.83 (1.23–6.54) Arthralgia at M4 No 26 5 (19.2) 0.10 (0.04–0.30) 35 Sex ratio (M/F) 1/1 Number of sites oligo or polyarthralgia Sites upper limbs : fingers. wrist lower limbs : knees. ankles Type symmetrical permanent or not migratory highly incapacitating morning stiffness duration average: ≈30 minutes General sign fever no fever Other clinical signs edema cutaneous lesion myalgia sleep and memory disorders Laboratory tests CRP normal ACCP normal antinuclear normal anti CHIKV IgGs positive Risk factor diabetes Our data reveal that more than 60% of CHIKV-infected patients suffer from arthralgia, 36 months after acute infection. This high percentage of patients with long-term symptoms was also reported by other studies of Italian cohorts and French cohorts of La Réunion Island or metropolitan France [17], [18], [19], [20], [21] but is dramatically higher than documented in India and Senegal [1], [22], [23], [24], [25]. While this discrepancy may result from particular features of the CHIKV strain responsible for the La Réunion outbreak, data from Italy following the 2007 outbreak resulted from a CHIKV strain more closely related to the viral strain present in India [10], with more than 60% of CHIKV patients in Italy having reported myalgia, asthenia or arthralgia 12–13 months after the acute disease [20]. Alternatively, reported differences may be a result of different genetic backgrounds of these populations. As joint pain is considered a subjective symptom, it might also reflect a difference in pain threshold of patients or reporting from physicians, thus reflecting differences in health care practices. Long-term CHIKV-associated arthralgia were mainly symmetrical, involving more than 2 different joints. Hand, wrist, ankle and knee were found to be the most affected, consistent with other studies [17], [18]. Moreover, 60–80% of patients had relapsing arthralgia, while 20–40% had unremitting arthralgia. While some patients reported “migrating” arthralgia, most disease symptoms mapped to joints that were most painful during acute Chikungunya disease. Thus, symptoms at the chronic phase may be indirectly associated to virus replication at the time of acute infection [26], [27], [28]. In addition to arthralgia, many patients suffered from myalgia and cutaneous lesions and several cognitive dysfunctions. Although study patients did not display neurological symptoms at the acute phase of disease, we cannot exclude that cognitive dysfunctions result from CHIKV spread in the CNS, as it has been reported that CHIKV disseminates to the CNS in humans and in animal models [12], [26], [27], [29]. Similar to other studies, chronic arthralgia are considered incapacitating for daily life tasks and impacted professional activities and quality of life [20], [21]. Beside this impact on patient, the economic burden of this long-term pathology is also very significant, independently of the cost of the acute disease [30]. The longitudinal design of our study enabled us to identify risk factors for development of long-term arthralgia. Individuals over the age of 35 years or with diabetes were more likely to suffer from chronic arthralgia. The age has been reported to be a risk factor with some cohorts [21], [31], [32], but not in others [18], [33]. None of our available parameters to measure the severity of acute disease were associated with long-term arthralgia. This may be explained by differences in the way to measure disease severity in other studies [18]. Importantly, we show that the presence and intensity of arthralgia at M4 after the onset of the acute disease is a good predictor of long-term arthralgia. Our study did not identify positive markers for autoimmune or rheumatoid arthritis. Additionally, we failed to identify systemic biomarkers associated with the arthralgic phenotype. Nevertheless, a slightly more elevated inflammatory status is found in a subset of arthralgic patients who have detectable serum level of IL1α, IL15 and slight elevation in Factor VII, C3 and CRP. This signature differs from that observed at the onset of the infection, when circulating virus is detectable and type I interferon, IP10, MCP1, ISG15 are highly elevated [34], [35], [36]. Others have identified IL6 and GM-CSF or IL12 as being specifically associated with long-term arthralgia [32], [33]. However, these studies were performed much earlier in the chronic phase (2–3 months and one year after disease onset). Our study shows that anti-CHIKV antibody titers were more elevated in ART+ patients than in ART- patients. This is in agreement with a recent study [37]. This higher level of antibodies could be associated with a more severe acute infection [37]. However, in our study, the level of antibody at M36 did not correlate with acute disease severity. Alternatively, this could reflect a persisting antigenic stimulation in ART+ patients (see below). Interestingly, it has been reported that viremia level at the acute phase correlates with a faster appearance of neutralizing antibodies and a better recovery 2–3 months after the acute phase [38]. Similarly to CHIKV, other so called “arthritogenic” alphaviruses, notably Ross River virus (RRV), are known to cause acute as well as chronic arthralgia [39]. Our data indicates that chronic symptoms are linked to the initial local joint inflammation and are not associated with markers of systemic inflammation or autoimmunity. A local inflammation of the joint could be maintained by the local persistence or delayed clearance of viral antigens. This is consistent with report of Hoarau et al. [32] who detected persistent CHIKV antigens within the synovial fluid of a patient suffering from chronic arthralgia. Moreover, experimental studies in CHIKV infected animal indicate that the joint is the most highly infected tissue, making it plausible that incomplete viral antigen clearance in this anatomical site may account for the long-term symptoms [26]. RRV has been shown to persist in vitro in mouse macrophages, and a model of RRV chronic arthritis suggests that viral persistence may account for chronic disease [40]. RRV and CHIKV have been shown to be weakly tropic for macrophages in vitro [41], [42] but the presence of antibodies dramatically increased RRV entry into macrophage [42]. Further studies will be required to assess the role of macrophages, as well the role of persistent infection and antibodies in chronic arthritis caused by CHIKV. In sum, this study furthers our understanding of the pathophysiology of CHIKV chronic arthralgia, a prerequisite for the development of efficient therapeutic strategies and for assessing the burden of disease inflicted upon populations affected by epidemic Chikungunya disease. Supporting Information Supporting Information S1 Strobe checklist for cohort study. (DOC) Click here for additional data file. Supporting Information S2 Questionnaire used for the study. (DOCX) Click here for additional data file. Supporting Information S3 Modelisation and estimation of spatiotemporal dynamics of arthralgia. (DOC) Click here for additional data file. Table S1 Likelihood ratio tests testing the complete model against different submodels. (DOC) Click here for additional data file. Table S2 Estimation of the annual economic impact of CHIKV long term arthralgia. (DOC) Click here for additional data file.
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            Chikungunya outbreaks--the globalization of vectorborne diseases.

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              Persistent arthralgia associated with chikungunya virus: a study of 88 adult patients on reunion island.

              An outbreak of chikungunya virus infection occurred on Reunion Island during the period 2005-2006. Persistent arthralgia after chikungunya virus infection has been reported, but few studies have treated this aspect of the disease. Adult patients with laboratory-confirmed acute chikungunya virus infection who were referred to Groupe Hospitalier Sud Reunion during the period 2005-2006 were asked to participate in the study. Patients were assessed a mean of 18 months after acute disease occurred. Assessment consisted of answering questions on a standard form, undergoing a medical examination, and being tested for the presence of IgM antibodies to chikungunya virus. Eighty-eight patients (mean age, 58.3 years; male-to-female ratio, 1.1:1.0) were included in this study. Fifty-eight patients (65.9%) had been hospitalized for acute chikungunya virus infection, and a history of arthralgia before chikungunya virus infection was reported by 39 patients (44%). Fifty-six patients (63.6%) reported persistent arthralgia related to chikungunya virus infection, and in almost one-half of the patients, the joint pain had a negative impact on everyday activities. Arthralgia was polyarticular in all cases, and pain was continuous in 31 patients (55.4%). Overall, 35 patients (39.7%) had test results positive for IgM antibodies to chikungunya virus. Persistent and disabling arthralgia was a frequent concern in this cohort of patients who had experienced severe chikungunya virus infection approximately 18 months earlier. Further studies are needed to evaluate the prevalence of persistent arthralgia in the general population to determine the real burden of the disease.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Formal analysis
                Role: Formal analysisRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Investigation
                Role: Investigation
                Role: Formal analysis
                Role: Formal analysis
                Role: Investigation
                Role: Formal analysis
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysis
                Role: Formal analysis
                Role: Resources
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Investigation
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS Negl Trop Dis
                PLoS Negl Trop Dis
                plos
                plosntds
                PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1935-2727
                1935-2735
                21 July 2020
                July 2020
                : 14
                : 7
                : e0008467
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Instituto Gonçalo Moniz (IGM)—Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz) Bahia
                [2 ] Faculdade de Medicina da Bahia—Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador-BA, Brazil
                [3 ] University of California, San Diego, Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Medi- cine, San Diego, California, United States of America
                [4 ] Instituto de Biologia Molecular do Paraná, Curitiba, PR, Brasil
                [5 ] Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Bio-Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
                [6 ] Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade do Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande- MS, Brazil
                [7 ] Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza-CE, Brazil
                [8 ] Fiocruz, Campo Grande, MS, Brazil
                [9 ] Instituto Carlos Chagas—ICC/Fiocruz, Curitiba-PR, Brazil
                [10 ] Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia de Investigação em Imunologia, São Paulo- SP, Brazil
                [11 ] Rega Institute for Medical Research, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
                [12 ] Serviço de Otorrinolaringologia do Hospital Santa Izabel/Santa Casa de Misericórdia da Bahia (HIS/SCMBa), Salvador, Brazil
                CDC, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                ‡ RC and VSB also contributed equally to this work.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4534-2509
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2061-5059
                Article
                PNTD-D-19-01908
                10.1371/journal.pntd.0008467
                7373495
                32693402
                1fc8407b-1f32-46c5-81e3-f1bcb3845973
                © 2020 de Moraes et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 11 November 2019
                : 9 June 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 3, Pages: 14
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003593, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico;
                Award ID: 420765/2017-4
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002322, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior;
                Award ID: 001
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002322, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior;
                Award ID: 001
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002322, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior;
                Award ID: 001
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002322, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior;
                Award ID: 001
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003593, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico;
                Award ID: 439967/2016-3
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004809, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos;
                Award ID: 0416006000
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003593, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico;
                Award ID: 001
                Award Recipient :
                This work was supported in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) [Finance Code 001], Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico [439967/2016-3], Programa de Excelência em Pesquisa [420765/2017-4] and Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos [MCTIC/FINEP/FNDCT 01/2016 ZIKA – 0416006000]. AB and MB-N are CNPq fellows. The funding organizations had no role in the study design, data collection, data interpretation or writing of this report.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pain Management
                Arthralgia
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Tropical Diseases
                Neglected Tropical Diseases
                Chikungunya Infection
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Viral Diseases
                Chikungunya Infection
                Biology and life sciences
                Organisms
                Viruses
                RNA viruses
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Microbiology
                Medical Microbiology
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Pathogens
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Viruses
                Viral Pathogens
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Diagnostic Medicine
                Signs and Symptoms
                Edema
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Signs and Symptoms
                Edema
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Vascular Medicine
                Blood Pressure
                Hypertension
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Diagnostic Medicine
                Signs and Symptoms
                Pain
                Myalgia
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Signs and Symptoms
                Pain
                Myalgia
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Neuroscience
                Sensory Perception
                Pruritus
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Psychology
                Sensory Perception
                Pruritus
                Social Sciences
                Psychology
                Sensory Perception
                Pruritus
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Diagnostic Medicine
                Signs and Symptoms
                Fevers
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Signs and Symptoms
                Fevers
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                Infectious disease & Microbiology

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