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      Visualizing Temperature Forecast Uncertainty for a Non-expert Web Audience

      ,

      9th Bi-annual International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9) (NDM)

      Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9)

      23 - 26 June 2009

      Uncertainty, Visualization, Decision-Making, Forecast

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          Abstract

          Motiviation – The goal of the studies reported here was to determine the optimal way to present webbased uncertainty forecasts for temperature. Research Approach – We focused on the 80% predictive interval, bounded by the temperatures at the 90th and the 10th percentiles of the probability distribution for temperature. Findings/Design – We found that non-expert users can understand novel forecast uncertainty information presented in a web-based format and they were able to put the information to good use, improving the quality of their decisions over those with the deterministic forecast alone. Research Limitation/Implications – Presentation format affected the ease and accuracy with which this information was extracted. Originality/Value – To date there has been very little empirical testing on the value of uncertainty visualizations. Take away message – Our research shows that non-experts can understand the benefit for forecasts with uncertainty and some presentation formats facilitate these.

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          Author and article information

          Contributors
          Conference
          June 2009
          June 2009
          : 283-284
          Affiliations
          University of Washington
          Article
          10.14236/ewic/NDM2009.42
          © Sonia Savelli et al. Published by BCS Learning and Development Ltd. 9th Bi-annual International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9), BCS London

          This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

          9th Bi-annual International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9)
          NDM
          9
          BCS London
          23 - 26 June 2009
          Electronic Workshops in Computing (eWiC)
          Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9)
          Product
          Product Information: 1477-9358BCS Learning & Development
          Self URI (journal page): https://ewic.bcs.org/
          Categories
          Electronic Workshops in Computing

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