Visualizing Temperature Forecast Uncertainty for a Non-expert Web Audience

Motiviation – The goal of the studies reported here was to determine the optimal way to present webbased uncertainty forecasts for temperature. Research Approach – We focused on the 80% predictive interval, bounded by the temperatures at the 90th and the 10th percentiles of the probability distribution for temperature. Findings/Design – We found that non-expert users can understand novel forecast uncertainty information presented in a web-based format and they were able to put the information to good use, improving the quality of their decisions over those with the deterministic forecast alone. Research Limitation/Implications – Presentation format affected the ease and accuracy with which this information was extracted. Originality/Value – To date there has been very little empirical testing on the value of uncertainty visualizations. Take away message – Our research shows that non-experts can understand the benefit for forecasts with uncertainty and some presentation formats facilitate these.