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      Cost and health effects of case management compared with outpatient clinic follow‐up in a Dutch heart failure cohort

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          Abstract

          Aims

          Heart failure reduces quality of life and life expectancy; hospital admissions are frequent and create a burden on public resources. This study aims to quantify the benefits in terms of health effects [quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs)] and costs when heart failure patients receive case management at home compared with outpatient cardiology clinic follow‐up.

          Methods and results

          A health state transition (Markov) model was written, and transition probabilities were derived from a cohort of 1114 patients and available literature. QALYs in different health states of heart failure patients were retrieved from the literature, and costs were estimated with data from the financial department of the Noordwest Ziekenhuisgroep and public cost sources. Monthly simulation cycles were repeated 60 times to generate 5 years of virtual follow‐up data. Baseline willingness to pay is assumed €50 000 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses were performed in a one‐way deterministic and a multiway probabilistic approach; the probabilistic approach used uniform and more plausible distributions of the model parameters.

          Case management reduced costs by €382 and increased QALYs by 0.261 for the baseline simulation; this results in a net monetary benefit of €13 428. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on uniform and most plausible distributions of parameters resulted in 96.2% and 83.3% of the simulations, favouring a treatment strategy of case management.

          Conclusions

          Case management is cost effective in 83.3% of the probabilistic simulations and has a tendency towards reducing costs and increasing QALYs when considering a real‐world cohort of heart failure patients in the Netherlands.

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          Most cited references19

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          Transitional care interventions to prevent readmissions for persons with heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

          Nearly 25% of patients hospitalized with heart failure (HF) are readmitted within 30 days.
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            Markov models in medical decision making: a practical guide.

            Markov models are useful when a decision problem involves risk that is continuous over time, when the timing of events is important, and when important events may happen more than once. Representing such clinical settings with conventional decision trees is difficult and may require unrealistic simplifying assumptions. Markov models assume that a patient is always in one of a finite number of discrete health states, called Markov states. All events are represented as transitions from one state to another. A Markov model may be evaluated by matrix algebra, as a cohort simulation, or as a Monte Carlo simulation. A newer representation of Markov models, the Markov-cycle tree, uses a tree representation of clinical events and may be evaluated either as a cohort simulation or as a Monte Carlo simulation. The ability of the Markov model to represent repetitive events and the time dependence of both probabilities and utilities allows for more accurate representation of clinical settings that involve these issues.
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              The epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in the UK 2014

              Cardiovascular disease (CVD) presents a significant burden to the UK. This review presents data from nationally representative datasets to provide up-to-date statistics on mortality, prevalence, treatment and costs. Data focus on CVD as a whole, coronary heart disease (International Classification of Diseases (ICD):I20–25) and cerebrovascular disease (ICD:I60–69); however, where available, other cardiovascular conditions are also presented. In 2012, CVD was the most common cause of death in the UK for women (28% of all female deaths), but not for men, where cancer is now the most common cause of death (32% of all male deaths). Mortality from CVD varies widely throughout the UK, with the highest age-standardised CVD death rates in Scotland (347/100 000) and the North of England (320/100 000 in the North West). Prevalence of coronary heart disease is also highest in the North of England (4.5% in the North East) and Scotland (4.3%). Overall, around three times as many men have had a myocardial infarction compared with women. Treatment for CVD is increasing over time, with prescriptions and operations for CVD having substantially increased over the last two decades. The National Health Service in England spent around £6.8 billion on CVD in 2012/2013, the majority of which came from spending on secondary care. Despite significant declines in mortality in the UK, CVD remains a considerable burden, both in terms of health and costs. Both primary and secondary prevention measures are necessary to reduce both the burden of CVD and inequalities in CVD mortality and prevalence.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                h.vanvoorst@amsterdamumc.nl
                Journal
                ESC Heart Fail
                ESC Heart Fail
                10.1002/(ISSN)2055-5822
                EHF2
                ESC Heart Failure
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2055-5822
                16 April 2020
                June 2020
                : 7
                : 3 ( doiID: 10.1002/ehf2.v7.3 )
                : 1136-1144
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Department of Cardiology, Amsterdam UMC Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam VU Amsterdam Main building, De Boelelaan 1105 Amsterdam 1081 HV the Netherlands
                [ 2 ] Cardiology Noordwest Ziekenhuisgroep Alkmaar the Netherlands
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Corrrespondence to: Henk van Voorst, Amsterdam UMC, VU Amsterdam Main building, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam 1081 HV, the Netherlands. Tel: +3120 5669111. Email: h.vanvoorst@ 123456amsterdamumc.nl

                Article
                EHF212692 ESCHF-19-00372
                10.1002/ehf2.12692
                7261554
                32301235
                20de91d1-4c0f-406b-be9d-c0220ddd3774
                © 2020 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

                History
                : 17 October 2019
                : 03 March 2020
                : 11 March 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 2, Pages: 9, Words: 3927
                Categories
                Original Research Article
                Original Research Article
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                June 2020
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.8.3 mode:remove_FC converted:31.05.2020

                heart failure,health care economics and organizations,markov chains,patient care management,case management,quality‐adjusted life years

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