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      How can global climate change influence the geographic distribution of the eucalyptus yellow beetle? Modeling and prediction for Brazil Translated title: Como mudanças climáticas globais podem influenciar na distribuição geográfica do besouro amarelo do eucalipto? Modelagem e predição para o Brasil


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          Abstract Popularly known as the yellow eucalyptus beetle, Costalimaita ferruginea (Fabricius, 1801) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), in the adult phase it feeds on the leaves of the myrtaceae, leaving them laced, a fact that impairs the productivity of plantations. Therefore, this work aims to model the potential distribution of the beetle in climate change scenarios for Brazil. The biotic data were collected through a review of the literature and entomological collections, totaling 88 georeferenced points of occurrence of the insect in the country. The abiotic data (19 biovariables, precipitation and minimum, average and maximum temperature) in the Wordcllim database, represent the periods: current (1970-2000), middle (2041-2060), and final (2061-2080) of the century, with representation in two projections of climatic anomalies (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To determine the most important variables for the models, the Jackknife test was performed in the Maxent software, which resulted in five biovariables, namely: annual precipitation (35.2%), temperature seasonality (15.2%), annual temperature variation (13.7%), seasonality of precipitation (8.7%) and an average temperature of the coldest quarter (7.4%). Subsequently, the Openmodeller software was used and five algorithms were tested to determine which model represents the prediction of areas of suitability for the occurrence of the insect. The algorithm that best represented the appropriate areas was the Envelope Score (AUC = 0.808), corroborating the occurrence data collected. The prediction shows that the Pampa biome, in the RCP8.5 scenario for the period between 2061-2080, will become fully suitable for the occurrence of this defoliator beetle, unlike the Amazon, which presents retraction in areas suitable for the occurrence of the beetle for the same period. In this sense, commercial eucalyptus plantations implemented in climatologically suitable areas for the occurrence of this insect must be monitored periodically.

          Translated abstract

          Resumo Conhecido popularmente como, o besouro-amarelo do eucalipto, Costalimaita ferrugínea (Fabricius, 1801) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), na fase adulta alimenta-se das folhas da mirtácea deixando-as rendilhadas, fato este que prejudica a produtividade dos plantios. Sendo assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo modelar a distribuição potencial do besouro em cenários de mudanças climáticas para o Brasil. Os dados bióticos foram levantados através de revisão de literatura e de coleções entomológicas, totalizando 88 pontos georreferenciados de ocorrência do inseto no país. Os dados abióticos (19 biovariáveis, precipitação e temperatura mínima, média e máxima) no banco de dados Wordlclim, representando os períodos: atual (1970-2000), meio (2041-2060) e final (2061-2080) do século, com representação em duas projeções de anomalias climáticas (RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5). De modo a determinar as variáveis mais importantes para os modelos, foi realizado o teste Jackknife no software Maxent, o qual resultou em cinco biovariáveis, sendo elas: precipitação anual (35.2%), sazonalidade da temperatura (15.2%), variação anual de temperatura (13.7%), sazonalidade de precipitação (8.7%) e temperatura média do trimestre mais frio (7.4%). Posteriormente, utilizou-se o software Openmodeller e testados cinco algoritmos, para determinar qual modelo representa a predição de áreas de adequabilidade para a ocorrência do inseto. O algoritmo que melhor representou as áreas adequadas foi o Envelope Score (AUC = 0.808), corroborando com os dados de ocorrência levantados. A predição mostra que o bioma Pampa, no cenário RCP8.5 para o período entre 2061-2080 se tornará totalmente adequado à ocorrência desse besouro desfolhador, ao contrário da Amazônia, que apresenta retração nas áreas adequadas à ocorrência do besouro para o mesmo período. Nesse sentido, plantios comerciais de eucalipto implementados em áreas climatologicamente adequadas à ocorrência desse inseto devem ser monitoradas periodicamente.

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          Most cited references33

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          Opening the black box: an open-source release of Maxent

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            What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

            Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.
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              Assessing insect responses to climate change: What are we testing for? Where should we be heading?

              To understand how researchers are tackling globally important issues, it is crucial to identify whether current research is comprehensive enough to make substantive predictions about general responses. We examined how research on climate change affecting insects is being assessed, what factors are being tested and the localities of studies, from 1703 papers published between 1985 and August 2012. Most published research (64%) is generated from Europe and North America and being dedicated to core data analysis, with 29% of the studies analysed dedicated to Lepidoptera and 22% Diptera: which are well above their contribution to the currently identified insect species richness (estimated at 13% and 17% respectively). Research publications on Coleoptera fall well short of their proportional contribution (19% of publications but 39% of insect species identified), and to a lesser extent so do Hemiptera, and Hymenoptera. Species specific responses to changes in temperature by assessing distribution/range shifts or changes in abundance were the most commonly used methods of assessing the impact of climate change on insects. Research on insects and climate change to date is dominated by manuscripts assessing butterflies in Europe, insects of economic and/or environmental concern in forestry, agriculture, and model organisms. The research on understanding how insects will respond to a rapidly changing climate is still in its infancy, but the current trends of publications give a good basis for how we are attempting to assess insect responses. In particular, there is a crucial need for broader studies of ecological, behavioural, physiological and life history responses to be addressed across a greater range of geographic locations, particularly Asia, Africa and Australasia, and in areas of high human population growth and habitat modification. It is still too early in our understanding of taxa responses to climate change to know if charismatic taxa, such as butterflies, or disease vectors, including Diptera, can be used as keystone taxa to generalise other insect responses to climate change. This is critical as the basic biology of most species is still poorly known, and dominant, well studied taxa may show variable responses to climate change across their distribution due to regional biotic and abiotic influences. Indeed identifying if insect responses to climate change can be generalised using phylogeny, functional traits, or functional groups, or will populations and species exhibit idiosyncratic responses, should be a key priority for future research.

                Author and article information

                Brazilian Journal of Biology
                Braz. J. Biol.
                Instituto Internacional de Ecologia (São Carlos, SP, Brazil )
                : 82
                : e265046
                [02] Curitiba Paraná orgnameUniversidade Federal do Paraná orgdiv1Departamento de Zoologia orgdiv2Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Entomologia) Brazil
                [03] Sinop orgnameUniversidade Federal do Mato Grosso orgdiv1Instituto de Ciências Naturais orgdiv2Humanas e Sociais, Programa de Pós-graduação em Biodiversidade e Biotecnologia Brazil
                [01] Sinop orgnameUniversidade Federal do Mato Grosso orgdiv1Instituto de Ciências Naturais orgdiv2Humanas e Sociais, Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciências Ambientais Brazil
                S1519-69842022000100772 S1519-6984(22)08200000772

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

                : 18 June 2022
                : 06 November 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 33, Pages: 0

                SciELO Brazil

                Original Article

                forest pests,climatic suitability,Costalimaita ferruginea,environmental modeling,defoliators insects


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