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      Self‐organized criticality in human epidemiology

      , ,

      Aip Conference Proceedings

      American Institute of Physics

      MODELING COOPERATIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

      7-11 February 2005

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          Abstract

          As opposed to most sociological fields, data are available in good quality for human epidemiology, describing the interaction between individuals being susceptible to or infected by a disease. Mathematically, the modelling of such systems is done on the level of stochastic master equations, giving likelihood functions for real live data. We show in a case study of meningococcal disease, that the observed large fluctuations of outbreaks of disease among the human population can be explained by the theory of accidental pathogens , leading the system towards a critical state, characterized by power laws in outbreak distributions. In order to make the extremely difficult parameter estimation close to a critical state with absorbing boundary possible, we investigate new algorithms for simulation of the disease dynamics on the basis of winner takes all strategies, and combine them with previously developed parameter estimation schemes.

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          Author and article information

          Contributors
          Role: Conference Editor
          Role: Conference Editor
          Role: Conference Editor
          Conference
          AIP Conf Proc
          AIP Conf Proc
          APCPCS
          Aip Conference Proceedings
          American Institute of Physics
          0-7354-0266-3
          0094-243X
          1551-7616
          20 July 2005
          : 779
          : 1
          : 191-194
          Affiliations
          Mathematics Department, Porto University, Portugal NIC, Research Center Jülich, Germany
          School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway University London, UK
          University of Granada
          University of Granada
          University of Granada
          Article
          027535APC 1.2008613
          10.1063/1.2008613
          7108766

          All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ).

          MODELING COOPERATIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
          Granada (Spain)
          7-11 February 2005
          Page count
          Pages: 4
          Categories
          Article

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