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      Estimation of soybean agronomic performance in climatic scenarios for Southern Brazil Translated title: Estimativa do desempenho agronômico da soja em cenários climáticos para o sul do Brasil

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          ABSTRACT The study aimed to analyze the agronomic performance of soybean cultivated in Southern Brazil, in climatic scenarios. Climatic data from three cities located in the main soybean producing regions of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul were used in the Aquacrop 4.0 software. Thus, it was possible to simulate cycle duration, yield, water use efficiency in productivity of evapotranspiration water (WUE), net irrigation requirement, and harvest index adjusted for different climatic scenarios based on short-term (2016-2035) and medium-term projections (2046-2065) of the RCP4.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The soybean cycle duration tends to decrease when the locality is colder. Productivity and WUE should increase even if there is no irrigation requirement in future climate scenarios.

          Translated abstract

          RESUMO Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar o desempenho agronômico da soja cultivada no sul do Brasil em cenários climáticos. Dados climáticos de três municípios localizados nas principais regiões produtoras de soja do Paraná, Santa Catarina e do Rio Grande do Sul foram utilizados no software Aquacrop 4.0 para simular a duração do ciclo, produtividade, eficiência do uso da água na produtividade da água evapotranspirada (EUA), requerimento de irrigação líquida e o índice de colheita ajustado em diferentes cenários climáticos, baseados nas projeções em curto prazo (2016-2035) e médio prazo (2046-2065) do cenário RCP4.5 do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática. A duração do ciclo da soja tende a diminuir quanto mais frio for a localidade. A produtividade e a EUA devem aumentar, mesmo que não haja requerimento de irrigação nos cenários climáticos futuros.

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          Most cited references 23

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          Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations.

          Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by approximately 50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.
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            Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use in China

             Zhao Zhang,  Fulu Tao (2011)
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              From climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies: Challenges for agriculture in Europe


                Author and article information

                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Revista Ceres
                Rev. Ceres
                Universidade Federal de Viçosa (Viçosa, MG, Brazil )
                December 2017
                : 64
                : 6
                : 567-573
                Florianópolis Santa Catarina orgnameUniversidade Federal de Santa Catarina orgdiv1Departamento de Engenharia Rural Brazil rbminuzzi@ 123456hotmail.com
                Serra Talhada orgnameUniversidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco Brazil thigeoprofissional@ 123456hotmail.com

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 23, Pages: 7
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                produtividade, irrigação, fenologia, yield, irrigation, fenology


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