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      A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014

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          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Highlights

          • This is the fifth in our annual series of horizon scans published in TREE.

          • We identify 15 issues that we considered insufficiently known by the conservation community.

          • These cover a wide range of issues. Four relate to climate change, two to invasives and two to disease spread.

          • This exercise has been influential in the past.

          Abstract

          This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease.

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          Most cited references58

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          Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

          More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO(2) emissions over 2000-50 to 1,000 Gt CO(2) yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 degrees C-and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO(2) yields a 50% probability-given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000-06 CO(2) emissions were approximately 234 Gt CO(2), less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12-45% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C-assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 degrees C rises to 53-87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.
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            Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content

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              Declining amphibian populations: the problem of separating human impacts from natural fluctuations.

              Reports of declining amphibian populations in many parts of the world are numerous, but supporting long-term census data are generally unavailable. Census data from 1979 to 1990 for three salamander species and one frog species at a breeding pond in South Carolina showed fluctuations of substantial magnitude in both the size of breeding populations and in recruitment of juveniles. Breeding population sizes exhibited no overall trend in three species and increased in the fourth. Recent droughts account satisfactorily for an increase in recruitment failures. These data illustrate that to distinguish between natural population fluctuations and declines with anthropogenic causes may require long-term studies.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Trends Ecol Evol
                Trends Ecol. Evol. (Amst.)
                Trends in Ecology & Evolution
                Elsevier Science Publishers
                0169-5347
                1 January 2014
                January 2014
                : 29
                : 1
                : 15-22
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK
                [2 ]Fauna & Flora International, 4th Floor, Jupiter House, Station Road, Cambridge, CB1 2JD, UK
                [3 ]International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland
                [4 ]Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PB 92019, Auckland, New Zealand
                [5 ]Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1EU, UK
                [6 ]John Muir Institute of the Environment, The Barn, One Shields Avenue, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
                [7 ]Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2DL, UK
                [8 ]WIRED, 520 3rd Street, Third Floor at Bryant Street, San Francisco, CA 94107, USA
                [9 ]Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, Cranfield University, Cranfield, MK43 0AL, UK
                [10 ]Natural Resources Wales, Cambria House, 29 Newport Road, Cardiff, CF24 0TP, UK
                [11 ]Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Monkstone House, City Road, Peterborough, PE1 1JY, UK
                [12 ]British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
                [13 ]Essex Sustainability Institute and Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK
                [14 ]Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, SE-106 19, Stockholm, Sweden
                [15 ]Center for Ecology, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Investigation (Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas — IVIC), Apdo. 20632, Caracas 1020-A, Venezuela
                [16 ]Global Marine Team, The Nature Conservancy, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK
                [17 ]Wetlands International, PO Box 471, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands
                [18 ]School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
                Article
                S0169-5347(13)00277-2
                10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004
                3884124
                24332318
                238eeb4e-a643-4be9-a009-db875c4e7365
                © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

                This document may be redistributed and reused, subject to certain conditions.

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                Categories
                Review
                Feature Review

                Ecology
                climate change,diseases,future,horizon scan,priority setting
                Ecology
                climate change, diseases, future, horizon scan, priority setting

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