Predicting biological invasions in marine habitats through eco-physiological mechanistic models: a case study with the bivalveBrachidontes pharaonis

Temperature controls the rate of fundamental biochemical processes and thereby regulates organismal attributes including development rate and survival. The increase in metabolic rate with temperature explains substantial among-species variation in life-history traits, population dynamics, and ecosystem processes. Temperature can also cause variability in metabolic rate within species. Here, we compare the effect of temperature on a key component of marine life cycles among a geographically and taxonomically diverse group of marine fish and invertebrates. Although innumerable lab studies document the negative effect of temperature on larval development time, little is known about the generality versus taxon-dependence of this relationship. We present a unified, parameterized model for the temperature dependence of larval development in marine animals. Because the duration of the larval period is known to influence larval dispersal distance and survival, changes in ocean temperature could have a direct and predictable influence on population connectivity, community structure, and regional-to-global scale patterns of biodiversity.

Resource managers and scientists from disparate disciplines are rising to the challenge of understanding and moderating human impacts on marine ecosystems. Traditional barriers to communication between marine ecologists, fisheries biologists, social scientists and economists are beginning to break down, and the distinction between applied and basic research is fading. These ongoing trends arise, in part, from an increasing awareness of the profound influence of people on the functioning of all marine ecosystems, an increased focus on spatial and temporal scale, and a renewed assessment of the role of biodiversity in the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services upon which human societies depend. Here, we highlight the emergence of a complex systems approach for sustaining and repairing marine ecosystems, linking ecological resilience to governance structures, economics and society.