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      Recent global trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia, and survival with dementia

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          Abstract

          Background

          Current projections of the scale of the coming dementia epidemic assume that the age- and sex-specific prevalence of dementia will not vary over time, and that population ageing alone (increasing the number of older people at risk) drives the projected increases. The basis for this assumption is doubtful, and secular trends (that is, gradual decreases or increases in prevalence over long-term periods) are perfectly plausible.

          Methods

          We carried out a systematic review of studies of trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality for people with dementia, conducted since 1980.

          Results

          We identified nine studies that had tracked dementia prevalence, eight that had tracked dementia incidence, and four that had tracked mortality among people with dementia. There was some moderately consistent evidence to suggest that the incidence of dementia may be declining in high-income countries. Evidence on trends in the prevalence of dementia were inconsistent across studies and did not suggest any clear overall effect. Declining incidence may be balanced by longer survival with dementia, although mortality trends have been little studied. There is some evidence to suggest increasing prevalence in East Asia, consistent with worsening cardiovascular risk factor profiles, although secular changes in diagnostic criteria may also have contributed.

          Conclusions

          We found no evidence to suggest that the current assumption of constant age-specific prevalence of dementia over time is ill-founded. However, there remains some uncertainty as to the future scale of the dementia epidemic. Population ageing seems destined to play the greatest role, and prudent policymakers should plan future service provision based upon current prevalence projections. Additional priorities should include investing in brain health promotion and dementia prevention programs, and monitoring the future course of the epidemic to chart the effectiveness of these measures.

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          The global prevalence of dementia: a systematic review and metaanalysis.

          Martin Prince, Renata Bryce, Emiliano Albanese … (2013)
          The evidence base on the prevalence of dementia is expanding rapidly, particularly in countries with low and middle incomes. A reappraisal of global prevalence and numbers is due, given the significant implications for social and public policy and planning. In this study we provide a systematic review of the global literature on the prevalence of dementia (1980-2009) and metaanalysis to estimate the prevalence and numbers of those affected, aged ≥60 years in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. Age-standardized prevalence for those aged ≥60 years varied in a narrow band, 5%-7% in most world regions, with a higher prevalence in Latin America (8.5%), and a distinctively lower prevalence in the four sub-Saharan African regions (2%-4%). It was estimated that 35.6 million people lived with dementia worldwide in 2010, with numbers expected to almost double every 20 years, to 65.7 million in 2030 and 115.4 million in 2050. In 2010, 58% of all people with dementia lived in countries with low or middle incomes, with this proportion anticipated to rise to 63% in 2030 and 71% in 2050. The detailed estimates in this study constitute the best current basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources in dementia care. The age-specific prevalence of dementia varies little between world regions, and may converge further. Future projections of numbers of people with dementia may be modified substantially by preventive interventions (lowering incidence), improvements in treatment and care (prolonging survival), and disease-modifying interventions (preventing or slowing progression). All countries need to commission nationally representative surveys that are repeated regularly to monitor trends. Copyright © 2013 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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            Potential for primary prevention of Alzheimer's disease: an analysis of population-based data.

            Sam Norton, Fiona Matthews, Deborah Barnes … (2014)
            Recent estimates suggesting that over half of Alzheimer's disease burden worldwide might be attributed to potentially modifiable risk factors do not take into account risk-factor non-independence. We aimed to provide specific estimates of preventive potential by accounting for the association between risk factors. Using relative risks from existing meta-analyses, we estimated the population-attributable risk (PAR) of Alzheimer's disease worldwide and in the USA, Europe, and the UK for seven potentially modifiable risk factors that have consistent evidence of an association with the disease (diabetes, midlife hypertension, midlife obesity, physical inactivity, depression, smoking, and low educational attainment). The combined PAR associated with the risk factors was calculated using data from the Health Survey for England 2006 to estimate and adjust for the association between risk factors. The potential of risk factor reduction was assessed by examining the combined effect of relative reductions of 10% and 20% per decade for each of the seven risk factors on projections for Alzheimer's disease cases to 2050. Worldwide, the highest estimated PAR was for low educational attainment (19·1%, 95% CI 12·3-25·6). The highest estimated PAR was for physical inactivity in the USA (21·0%, 95% CI 5·8-36·6), Europe (20·3%, 5·6-35·6), and the UK (21·8%, 6·1-37·7). Assuming independence, the combined worldwide PAR for the seven risk factors was 49·4% (95% CI 25·7-68·4), which equates to 16·8 million attributable cases (95% CI 8·7-23·2 million) of 33·9 million cases. However, after adjustment for the association between the risk factors, the estimate reduced to 28·2% (95% CI 14·2-41·5), which equates to 9·6 million attributable cases (95% CI 4·8-14·1 million) of 33·9 million cases. Combined PAR estimates were about 30% for the USA, Europe, and the UK. Assuming a causal relation and intervention at the correct age for prevention, relative reductions of 10% per decade in the prevalence of each of the seven risk factors could reduce the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in 2050 by 8·3% worldwide. After accounting for non-independence between risk factors, around a third of Alzheimer's diseases cases worldwide might be attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors. Alzheimer's disease incidence might be reduced through improved access to education and use of effective methods targeted at reducing the prevalence of vascular risk factors (eg, physical inactivity, smoking, midlife hypertension, midlife obesity, and diabetes) and depression. National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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              The burden of disease in older people and implications for health policy and practice.

              Martin Prince, Shun-Fan Wu, Yanfei Guo … (2015)
              23% of the total global burden of disease is attributable to disorders in people aged 60 years and older. Although the proportion of the burden arising from older people (≥60 years) is highest in high-income regions, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per head are 40% higher in low-income and middle-income regions, accounted for by the increased burden per head of population arising from cardiovascular diseases, and sensory, respiratory, and infectious disorders. The leading contributors to disease burden in older people are cardiovascular diseases (30·3% of the total burden in people aged 60 years and older), malignant neoplasms (15·1%), chronic respiratory diseases (9·5%), musculoskeletal diseases (7·5%), and neurological and mental disorders (6·6%). A substantial and increased proportion of morbidity and mortality due to chronic disease occurs in older people. Primary prevention in adults aged younger than 60 years will improve health in successive cohorts of older people, but much of the potential to reduce disease burden will come from more effective primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention targeting older people. Obstacles include misplaced global health priorities, ageism, the poor preparedness of health systems to deliver age-appropriate care for chronic diseases, and the complexity of integrating care for complex multimorbidities. Although population ageing is driving the worldwide epidemic of chronic diseases, substantial untapped potential exists to modify the relation between chronological age and health. This objective is especially important for the most age-dependent disorders (ie, dementia, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and vision impairment), for which the burden of disease arises more from disability than from mortality, and for which long-term care costs outweigh health expenditure. The societal cost of these disorders is enormous.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Martin Prince: martin.prince@kcl.ac.uk
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Alzheimers Res Ther
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Alzheimers Res Ther
                Title: Alzheimer's Research & Therapy
                Publisher: BioMed Central (London )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1758-9193
                Publication date (Electronic): 30 July 2016
                Publication date PMC-release: 30 July 2016
                Publication date Collection: 2016
                Volume: 8
                Electronic Location Identifier: 23
                Affiliations
                [1 ]The Global Observatory for Ageing and Dementia Care, Health Service & Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London, PO 36, David Goldberg Centre, De Crespigny Park, London, SE5 8AF UK
                [2 ]Department of Public Health and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
                [3 ]Department of Psychiatry, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
                [4 ]Cambridge Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
                Article
                Publisher ID: 188
                DOI: 10.1186/s13195-016-0188-8
                PMC ID: 4967299
                PubMed ID: 27473681
                SO-VID: 24ab5d49-9f1d-460a-aeda-96fab1fe0993
                Copyright © © Prince et al. 2016
                License:

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                Date received : 24 March 2016
                Date accepted : 20 April 2016
                Categories
                Subject: Research
                Custom metadata
                issue-copyright-statement © The Author(s) 2016

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Neurology
                Keywords: dementia,trends,epidemiology,projection,global health,worldwide,systematic review,meta-analysis
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Neurology
                Keywords: dementia, trends, epidemiology, projection, global health, worldwide, systematic review, meta-analysis

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