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      Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

      GBD 2017 HIV collaborators

      The lancet. HIV

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          Summary

          Background

          Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

          Methods

          We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

          Findings

          Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

          Interpretation

          Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

          Funding

          Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

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          Most cited references 23

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          HIV-1 drug resistance before initiation or re-initiation of first-line antiretroviral therapy in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

          Summary Background Pretreatment drug resistance in people initiating or re-initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) containing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) might compromise HIV control in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to assess the scale of this problem and whether it is associated with the intiation or re-initiation of ART in people who have had previous exposure to antiretroviral drugs. Methods This study was a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. We assessed regional prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance and risk of pretreatment drug resistance in people initiating ART who reported previous ART exposure. We systematically screened publications and unpublished datasets for pretreatment drug-resistance data in individuals in LMICs initiating or re-initiating first-line ART from LMICs. We searched for studies in PubMed and Embase and conference abstracts and presentations from the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, the International AIDS Society Conference, and the International Drug Resistance Workshop for the period Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2016. To assess the prevalence of drug resistance within a specified region at any specific timepoint, we extracted study level data and pooled prevalence estimates within the region using an empty logistic regression model with a random effect at the study level. We used random effects meta-regression to relate sampling year to prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance within geographical regions. Findings We identified 358 datasets that contributed data to our analyses, representing 56 044 adults in 63 countries. Prevalence estimates of pretreatment NNRTI resistance in 2016 were 11·0% (7·5–15·9) in southern Africa, 10·1% (5·1–19·4) in eastern Africa, 7·2% (2·9–16·5) in western and central Africa, and 9·4% (6·6–13·2) in Latin America and the Caribbean. There were substantial increases in pretreatment NNRTI resistance per year in all regions. The yearly increases in the odds of pretreatment drug resistance were 23% (95% CI 16–29) in southern Africa, 17% (5–30) in eastern Africa, 17% (6–29) in western and central Africa, 11% (5–18) in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 11% (2–20) in Asia. Estimated increases in the absolute prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance between 2015 and 2016 ranged from 0·3% in Asia to 1·8% in southern Africa. Interpretation Pretreatment drug resistance is increasing at substantial rate in LMICs, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2016, the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance was near WHO's 10% threshold for changing first-line ART in southern and eastern Africa and Latin America, underscoring the need for routine national HIV drug-resistance surveillance and review of national policies for first-line ART regimen composition. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.
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            A Surprising Prevention Success: Why Did the HIV Epidemic Decline in Zimbabwe?

            Daniel Halperin and colleagues examine reasons for the remarkable decline in HIV in Zimbabwe, in the context of severe social, political, and economic disruption.
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              Prevalence and awareness of HIV infection among men who have sex with men --- 21 cities, United States, 2008.

                (2010)
              Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at increased risk for infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In 2006, 57% of new HIV infections in the United States occurred among MSM. To estimate and monitor risk behaviors, CDC's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system (NHBS) collects data from metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) using an anonymous cross-sectional interview of men at venues where MSM congregate, such as bars, clubs, and social organizations. This report summarizes NHBS data from 2008, which indicated that, of 8,153 MSM interviewed and tested in the 21 MSAs participating in NHBS that year, HIV prevalence was 19%, with non-Hispanic blacks having the highest prevalence (28%), followed by Hispanics (18%), non-Hispanic whites (16%), and persons who were multiracial or of other race (17%). Of those who were infected, 44% were unaware of their infection. Men who know their current HIV infection status can be linked to appropriate medical care and prevention services. Once linked to prevention services, men can learn ways to avoid transmitting the virus to others. Young MSM (aged 18--29 years) (63%) and minority MSM (other than non-Hispanic white) (54%) were more likely to be unaware of their HIV infection. Efforts to ensure at least annual HIV testing for MSM should be strengthened, and HIV testing and prevention programs should increase their efforts to reach young and minority MSM.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                101645355
                43213
                Lancet HIV
                Lancet HIV
                The lancet. HIV
                2405-4704
                2352-3018
                9 December 2019
                19 August 2019
                December 2019
                27 December 2019
                : 6
                : 12
                : e831-e859
                Author notes
                [*]

                Collaborators listed at the end of the Article

                Contributors

                C J L Murray, H H Kyu, T D Frank, A Carter, D Jahagirdar, M H Biehl, M Arora, and S L Larson prepared the first draft. C J L Murray and H H Kyu provided overall guidance. M H Biehl managed the project. T D Frank, A Carter, D Douwes-Schultz, and D Jahagirdar analysed the data. C J L Murray, H H Kyu, T D Frank, A Carter, D Jahagirdar, M H Biehl, M Arora, and S L Larson finalised the manuscript on the basis of comments from other authors and reviewer feedback. All other authors provided data, developed models, reviewed results, provided guidance on methods, or reviewed the manuscript.

                Correspondence to: Prof Christopher J L Murray, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98121, USA, cjlm@ 123456uw.edu
                Article
                NIHMS1062461
                10.1016/S2352-3018(19)30196-1
                6934077
                31439534

                This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

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