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      A generalizable 29-mRNA neural-network classifier for acute bacterial and viral infections

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          Abstract

          Improved identification of bacterial and viral infections would reduce morbidity from sepsis, reduce antibiotic overuse, and lower healthcare costs. Here, we develop a generalizable host-gene-expression-based classifier for acute bacterial and viral infections. We use training data ( N = 1069) from 18 retrospective transcriptomic studies. Using only 29 preselected host mRNAs, we train a neural-network classifier with a bacterial-vs-other area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.92 (95% CI 0.90–0.93) and a viral-vs-other AUROC 0.92 (95% CI 0.90–0.93). We then apply this classifier, inflammatix-bacterial-viral-noninfected-version 1 (IMX-BVN-1), without retraining, to an independent cohort ( N = 163). In this cohort, IMX-BVN-1 AUROCs are: bacterial-vs.-other 0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.93), and viral-vs.-other 0.85 (95% CI 0.76–0.93). In patients enrolled within 36 h of hospital admission ( N = 70), IMX-BVN-1 AUROCs are: bacterial-vs.-other 0.92 (95% CI 0.83–0.99), and viral-vs.-other 0.91 (95% CI 0.82–0.98). With further study, IMX-BVN-1 could provide a tool for assessing patients with suspected infection and sepsis at hospital admission.

          Abstract

          Diagnosing acute infections based on transcriptional host response shows promise, but generalizability is wanting. Here, the authors use a co-normalization framework to train a classifier to diagnose acute infections and apply it to independent data on a targeted diagnostic platform.

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          Most cited references 21

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          Visualizing data using ti-SNE

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            Bias in error estimation when using cross-validation for model selection

            Background Cross-validation (CV) is an effective method for estimating the prediction error of a classifier. Some recent articles have proposed methods for optimizing classifiers by choosing classifier parameter values that minimize the CV error estimate. We have evaluated the validity of using the CV error estimate of the optimized classifier as an estimate of the true error expected on independent data. Results We used CV to optimize the classification parameters for two kinds of classifiers; Shrunken Centroids and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Random training datasets were created, with no difference in the distribution of the features between the two classes. Using these "null" datasets, we selected classifier parameter values that minimized the CV error estimate. 10-fold CV was used for Shrunken Centroids while Leave-One-Out-CV (LOOCV) was used for the SVM. Independent test data was created to estimate the true error. With "null" and "non null" (with differential expression between the classes) data, we also tested a nested CV procedure, where an inner CV loop is used to perform the tuning of the parameters while an outer CV is used to compute an estimate of the error. The CV error estimate for the classifier with the optimal parameters was found to be a substantially biased estimate of the true error that the classifier would incur on independent data. Even though there is no real difference between the two classes for the "null" datasets, the CV error estimate for the Shrunken Centroid with the optimal parameters was less than 30% on 18.5% of simulated training data-sets. For SVM with optimal parameters the estimated error rate was less than 30% on 38% of "null" data-sets. Performance of the optimized classifiers on the independent test set was no better than chance. The nested CV procedure reduces the bias considerably and gives an estimate of the error that is very close to that obtained on the independent testing set for both Shrunken Centroids and SVM classifiers for "null" and "non-null" data distributions. Conclusion We show that using CV to compute an error estimate for a classifier that has itself been tuned using CV gives a significantly biased estimate of the true error. Proper use of CV for estimating true error of a classifier developed using a well defined algorithm requires that all steps of the algorithm, including classifier parameter tuning, be repeated in each CV loop. A nested CV procedure provides an almost unbiased estimate of the true error.
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              Hospital deaths in patients with sepsis from 2 independent cohorts.

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                tsweeney@inflammatix.com
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                4 March 2020
                4 March 2020
                2020
                : 11
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Inflammatix, Inc., 863 Mitten Rd, Suite 104, Burlingame, CA 94010 USA
                [2 ]ISNI 0000000419368956, GRID grid.168010.e, Department of Medicine, , Stanford University, ; Palo Alto, CA 94305 USA
                [3 ]ISNI 0000000419368956, GRID grid.168010.e, Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, , Stanford University, ; Palo Alto, CA 94305 USA
                [4 ]ISNI 0000000419368956, GRID grid.168010.e, Institute for Immunity, Transplantation and Infections, , Stanford University, ; Palo Alto, CA 94305 USA
                [5 ]ISNI 0000000419368956, GRID grid.168010.e, Center for Biomedical Informatics Research, Department of Medicine, , Stanford University, ; Palo Alto, CA 94305 USA
                Article
                14975
                10.1038/s41467-020-14975-w
                7055276
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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