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      Retracing Realistic Disaster Scenarios from Archival Sources: A Key Tool for Disaster Risk Reduction

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          Abstract

          Disaster scenarios are constructed by integrating natural hazard phenomena and social science sources of information. We profiled 51 natural hazard events of nineteenth century Kashmir that provide insights into the impacts of varying degree of severity that spread through the socioeconomic and political systems, influenced adaptation, and increased the consequences of the resulting disasters. The root cause of these disasters was embedded in the social, natural, and political economic systems of their time, where vulnerabilities overlapped and interacted periodically with successive colonial regimes and acted as tipping points. The combined effect of successive colonial regimes, inept administration, rigid political economy, and natural hazards made the situation go from bad to worse and reduced Kashmir to the depths of distress and subjugation. Over the arc of the nineteenth century, a series of disasters led the Kashmiri population to learn how to live with disasters and minimize risk, bringing about the evolution of social and environmental knowledge. Understanding the natural hazard vulnerability of the Kashmir Valley through archival narratives can help in scenario building to translate findings into formats that reduce related risk now as it did then. The resulting information can be useful for regional design, planning, and policy responses to promote disaster risk reduction.

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          Climate change and human health: present and future risks.

          There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.
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            The space of vulnerability: the causal structure of hunger and famine

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              Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
                Int J Disaster Risk Sci
                Springer Science and Business Media LLC
                2095-0055
                2192-6395
                October 2021
                June 25 2021
                October 2021
                : 12
                : 5
                : 635-648
                Article
                10.1007/s13753-021-00363-5
                2617c320-8e98-4cf2-871b-c7bf8b54b12f
                © 2021

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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