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      Reinventing learning: a design-research odyssey

      ZDM

      Springer Nature

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          Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

           A Tversky,  D Kahneman (1974)
          This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.
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            A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality.

            Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                ZDM
                ZDM Mathematics Education
                Springer Nature
                1863-9690
                1863-9704
                October 2015
                November 7 2014
                : 47
                : 6
                : 1013-1026
                Article
                10.1007/s11858-014-0646-3
                © 2014
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