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      Impacts of early smoking initiation: long-term trends of lung cancer mortality and smoking initiation from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Great Britain

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          Abstract

          Objective

          To show long-term trends of smoking initiation in Great Britain including unanalysed data and assess the impact of early smoking initiation on the lung cancer mortality in later ages focusing on birth cohorts.

          Design

          Reanalysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted 13 times during 1965–1987.

          Setting

          Great Britain.

          Participants

          Men and women aged 16 years and over in each survey.

          Primary outcome measures

          Smoking initiation for 1898–1969 birth cohorts and lung cancer mortality in 1950–2009.

          Results

          In men, 1900–1925 birth cohorts showed high smoking initiation (>32%, >50% and >80% at 15, 17 and 29 years old, respectively). Correspondingly, the lung cancer mortality in these cohorts exceeded 1 per 1000 at a young age (50–54 years old). In women, smoking initiation increased clearly from the 1898 cohort to the 1925 cohort (2% to 12%, 4% to 24%, and 13% to 54% at 15, 17 and 29 years old, respectively). Correspondingly, the age at which the mortality exceeded 1 per 1000 became younger (75–79 to 60–64 years old). In both men and women, short-term decreases in initiation were seen from the late-1920s cohorts. Correspondingly, lung cancer mortality decreased. In women, initiation increased again after the mid-1930s cohorts, and mortality increased after they became 60–64 years old.

          Conclusions

          Clear relationships between smoking initiation and lung cancer mortality across birth cohorts were observed. Countries with rapid increases in initiation in teens should not underestimate the risk in the distant future. Because of the long time lags within cohorts compared with rapid changes in smoking habits across cohorts, age-specific measures focusing on birth cohorts should be monitored.

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          Most cited references10

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          Smoking, smoking cessation, and lung cancer in the UK since 1950: combination of national statistics with two case-control studies.

          To relate UK national trends since 1950 in smoking, in smoking cessation, and in lung cancer to the contrasting results from two large case-control studies centred around 1950 and 1990. United Kingdom. Hospital patients under 75 years of age with and without lung cancer in 1950 and 1990, plus, in 1990, a matched sample of the local population: 1465 case-control pairs in the 1950 study, and 982 cases plus 3185 controls in the 1990 study. Smoking prevalence and lung cancer. For men in early middle age in the United Kingdom the prevalence of smoking halved between 1950 and 1990 but the death rate from lung cancer at ages 35-54 fell even more rapidly, indicating some reduction in the risk among continuing smokers. In contrast, women and older men who were still current smokers in 1990 were more likely than those in 1950 to have been persistent cigarette smokers throughout adult life and so had higher lung cancer rates than current smokers in 1950. The cumulative risk of death from lung cancer by age 75 (in the absence of other causes of death) rose from 6% at 1950 rates to 16% at 1990 rates in male cigarette smokers, and from 1% to 10% in female cigarette smokers. Among both men and women in 1990, however, the former smokers had only a fraction of the lung cancer rate of continuing smokers, and this fraction fell steeply with time since stopping. By 1990 cessation had almost halved the number of lung cancers that would have been expected if the former smokers had continued. For men who stopped at ages 60, 50, 40, and 30 the cumulative risks of lung cancer by age 75 were 10%, 6%, 3%, and 2%. People who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer, and stopping before middle age avoids more than 90% of the risk attributable to tobacco. Mortality in the near future and throughout the first half of the 21st century could be substantially reduced by current smokers giving up the habit. In contrast, the extent to which young people henceforth become persistent smokers will affect mortality rates chiefly in the middle or second half of the 21st century.
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            Smoking in China: findings of the 1996 National Prevalence Survey.

            As the world's largest producer and consumer of tobacco products, China bears a large proportion of the global burden of smoking-related disease and may be experiencing a tobacco epidemic. To develop an evidence-based approach supporting tobacco control initiatives in China. A population-based survey consisting of a 52-item questionnaire that included information on demographics, smoking history, smoking-related knowledge and attitudes, cessation, passive smoke exposure, and health status was administered in 145 disease surveillance points in the 30 provinces of China from March through July 1996. A nationally representative random sample of 128766 persons aged 15 to 69 years were asked to participate; 120298 (93.8%) provided data and were included in the final analysis. About two thirds of those sampled were from rural areas and one third were from urban areas. Current smoking patterns and attitudes; changes in smoking patterns and attitudes compared with results of a previous national survey conducted in 1984. A total of 41187 respondents smoked at least 1 cigarette per day, accounting for 34.1% of the total number of respondents, an increase of 3.4 percentage points since 1984. Current smoking continues to be prevalent among more men (63%) than women (3.8%). Age at smoking initiation declined by about 3 years for both men and women (from 28 to 25 years). Only a minority of smokers recognized that lung cancer (36%) and heart disease (4%) can be caused by smoking. Of the nonsmokers, 53.5% were exposed to environmental tobacco smoke at least 15 minutes per day on more than 1 day per week. Respondents were generally supportive of tobacco control measures. The high rates of smoking in men found in this study signal an urgent need for smoking prevention and cessation efforts; tobacco control initiatives are needed to maintain or decrease the currently low smoking prevalence in women.
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              Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation from national vital statistics.

              Prolonged cigarette smoking causes even more deaths from other diseases than from lung cancer. In developed countries, the absolute age-sex-specific lung cancer rates can be used to indicate the approximate proportions due to tobacco of deaths not only from lung cancer itself but also, indirectly, from vascular disease and from various other categories of disease. Even in the absence of direct information on smoking histories, therefore, national mortality from tobacco can be estimated approximately just from the disease mortality statistics that are available from all major developed countries for about 1985 (and for 1975 and so, by extrapolation, for 1995). The relation between the absolute excess of lung cancer and the proportional excess of other diseases can only be approximate, and so as not to overestimate the effects of tobacco it has been taken to be only half that suggested by a recent large prospective study of smoking and death among one million Americans. Application of such methods indicates that, in developed countries alone, annual deaths from smoking number about 0.9 million in 1965, 1.3 million in 1975, 1.7 million in 1985, and 2.1 million in 1995 (and hence about 21 million in the decade 1990-99: 5-6 million European Community, 5-6 million USA, 5 million former USSR, 3 million Eastern and other Europe, and 2 million elsewhere, [ie, Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand]). More than half these deaths will be at 35-69 years of age: during the 1990s tobacco will in developed countries cause about 30% of all deaths at 35-69 (making it the largest single cause of premature death) plus about 14% of all at older ages. Those killed at older ages are on average already almost 80 years old, however, and might have died soon anyway, but those killed by tobacco at 35-69 lose an average of about 23 years of life. At present just under 20% of all deaths in developed countries are attributed to tobacco, but this percentage is still rising, suggesting that on current smoking patterns just over 20% of those now living in developed countries will eventually be killed by tobacco (ie, about a quarter of a billion, out of a current total population of just under one and a quarter billion).
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Open
                bmjopen
                bmjopen
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2044-6055
                2012
                2012
                9 October 2012
                : 2
                : 5
                : e001676
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Public Health, Teikyo University Graduate School of Public Health, Tokyo, Japan
                [2 ]Department of Clinical Research Planning, Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Tokyo, Japan
                Author notes
                [Correspondance to ] Dr Ikuko Funatogawa; ifunatogawa-tky@umin.ac.jp
                Article
                bmjopen-2012-001676
                10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001676
                3488725
                23048061
                26d511d2-06e6-4ef6-9aa2-39e6abca8184
                Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non commercial and is otherwise in compliance with the license. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/ and http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/legalcode.

                History
                : 15 June 2012
                : 6 September 2012
                Categories
                Smoking and Tobacco
                Research
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                1724
                1692
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                Medicine
                public health,statistics & research methods,preventive medicine
                Medicine
                public health, statistics & research methods, preventive medicine

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