Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009–2013

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Abstract

Prevalence was reduced, and early evidence indicates herd immunity.

Abstract

In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization program using a bivalent vaccine against HPV types 16 and 18 was implemented in Scotland along with a national surveillance program designed to determine the longitudinal effects of vaccination on HPV infection at the population level. Each year during 2009–2013, the surveillance program conducted HPV testing on a proportion of liquid-based cytology samples from women undergoing their first cervical screening test for precancerous cervical disease. By linking vaccination, cervical screening, and HPV testing data, over the study period we found a decline in HPV types 16 and 18, significant decreases in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (suggesting cross-protection), and a nonsignificant increase in HPV 51. In addition, among nonvaccinated women, HPV types 16 and 18 infections were significantly lower in 2013 than in 2009. Our results preliminarily indicate herd immunity and sustained effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine on virologic outcomes at the population level.

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Population-level impact and herd effects following human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Anne M. Johnson, Erich V. Kliewer, Louise Baandrup … (2015)

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes were first implemented in several countries worldwide in 2007. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the population-level consequences and herd effects after female HPV vaccination programmes, to verify whether or not the high efficacy reported in randomised controlled clinical trials are materialising in real-world situations. We searched the Medline and Embase databases (between Jan 1, 2007 and Feb 28, 2014) and conference abstracts for time-trend studies that analysed changes, between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, in the incidence or prevalence of at least one HPV-related endpoint: HPV infection, anogenital warts, and high-grade cervical lesions. We used random-effects models to derive pooled relative risk (RR) estimates. We stratified all analyses by age and sex. We did subgroup analyses by comparing studies according to vaccine type, vaccination coverage, and years since implementation of the vaccination programme. We assessed heterogeneity across studies using I(2) and χ(2) statistics and we did trends analysis to examine the dose-response association between HPV vaccination coverage and each study effect measure. We identified 20 eligible studies, which were all undertaken in nine high-income countries and represent more than 140 million person-years of follow-up. In countries with female vaccination coverage of at least 50%, HPV type 16 and 18 infections decreased significantly between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods by 68% (RR 0·32, 95% CI 0·19-0·52) and anogenital warts decreased significantly by 61% (0·39, 0·22-0·71) in girls 13-19 years of age. Significant reductions were also recorded in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 in this age group of girls (RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·54-0·96), which suggests cross-protection. Additionally, significant reductions in anogenital warts were also reported in boys younger than 20 years of age (0·66 [95% CI 0·47-0·91]) and in women 20-39 years of age (0·68 [95% CI 0·51-0·89]), which suggests herd effects. In countries with female vaccination coverage lower than 50%, significant reductions in HPV types 16 and 18 infection (RR 0·50, 95% CI 0·34-0·74]) and in anogenital warts (0·86 [95% CI 0·79-0·94]) occurred in girls younger than 20 years of age, with no indication of cross-protection or herd effects. Our results are promising for the long-term population-level effects of HPV vaccination programmes. However, continued monitoring is essential to identify any signals of potential waning efficacy or type-replacement. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Epidemiology and natural history of human papillomavirus infections and type-specific implications in cervical neoplasia.

F. BOSCH, Ann Burchell, Mark Schiffman … (2008)

Worldwide human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence in women with normal cytology at any given point in time is approximately 10% indicating that HPV is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections. HPV-16 is consistently the most common type and HPV-18 the second with some minor regional differences. Furthermore, across the spectrum of cervical lesions, HPV-16 is consistently the most common HPV type contributing to 50-55% of invasive cervical cancer cases strongly suggesting that this viral type has a biological advantage for transmission, persistency and transformation. The same phenomenon is observed albeit at a lower level for HPV-18 and HPV-45. Sexual behavioral patterns across age groups and populations are central to the description of the HPV circulation and of the risk of infection. The concept of group sexual behavior (in addition to individual sexual behavior) is important in exploring HPV transmission and has implications for defining and monitoring HPV and cancer prevention strategies. In natural history studies, the pattern of HPV DNA prevalence by age groups is similar to the patterns of HPV incidence. Rates of exposure in young women are high and often include multiple types. There is a spontaneous and rapid decrease of the HPV DNA detection rates in the middle-age groups followed by a second rise in the post-menopausal years. This article reviews: 1) the evidence in relation to the burden of HPV infections in the world and the contributions of each HPV type to the spectrum of cervical cellular changes spanning from normal cytology to invasive cervical cancer; 2) the critical role of the patterns of sexual behavior in the populations; and 3) selected aspects of the technical and methodological complexity of natural history studies of HPV and cervical neoplasia.

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Reduction in human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence among young women following HPV vaccine introduction in the United States, National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 2003-2010.

Ronald Unger, E Dunne, Carol Lin … (2013)

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was introduced into the routine immunization schedule in the United States in late 2006 for females aged 11 or 12 years, with catch-up vaccination recommended for those aged 13-26 years. In 2010, 3-dose vaccine coverage was only 32% among 13-17 year-olds. Reduction in the prevalence of HPV types targeted by the quadrivalent vaccine (HPV-6, -11, -16, and -18) will be one of the first measures of vaccine impact. We analyzed HPV prevalence data from the vaccine era (2007-2010) and the prevaccine era (2003-2006) that were collected during National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. HPV prevalence was determined by the Linear Array HPV Assay in cervicovaginal swab samples from females aged 14-59 years; 4150 provided samples in 2003-2006, and 4253 provided samples in 2007-2010. Among females aged 14-19 years, the vaccine-type HPV prevalence (HPV-6, -11, -16, or -18) decreased from 11.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.2-14.4) in 2003-2006 to 5.1% (95% CI, 3.8-6.6) in 2007-2010, a decline of 56% (95% CI, 38-69). Among other age groups, the prevalence did not differ significantly between the 2 time periods (P > .05). The vaccine effectiveness of at least 1 dose was 82% (95% CI, 53-93). Within 4 years of vaccine introduction, the vaccine-type HPV prevalence decreased among females aged 14-19 years despite low vaccine uptake. The estimated vaccine effectiveness was high.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Emerg Infect Dis

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Emerging Infect. Dis

Journal ID (publisher-id): EID

Title: Emerging Infectious Diseases

Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

ISSN (Print): 1080-6040

ISSN (Electronic): 1080-6059

Publication date (Print): January 2016

Volume: 22

Issue: 1

Pages: 56-64

Affiliations

[1]Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK (R.L. Cameron, J. Love, S. Ahmed, K.G.J. Pollock);

[2]University of Strathclyde, Glasgow (K. Kavanagh, J. Pan, C. Robertson);

[3]Scottish Human Papillomavirus Reference Laboratory, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (K. Cuschieri);

[4]University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (T. Palmer)

Author notes

Address for correspondence: Ross L. Cameron, Meridian Court, 5 Cadogan St, Glasgow, G2 6QE, Scotland, UK; email: ross.cameron@ 123456nhs.net

Article

Publisher ID: 15-0736

DOI: 10.3201/eid2201.150736

PMC ID: 4696690

PubMed ID: 26692336

SO-VID: 280b6941-cf83-4590-b245-19c8989398ae

Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009–2013

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Most cited references 21

Population-level impact and herd effects following human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Epidemiology and natural history of human papillomavirus infections and type-specific implications in cervical neoplasia.

Reduction in human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence among young women following HPV vaccine introduction in the United States, National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 2003-2010.

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