In Silico Preclinical Trials: A Proof of Concept in Closed-Loop Control of Type 1 Diabetes

A nonlinear model predictive controller has been developed to maintain normoglycemia in subjects with type 1 diabetes during fasting conditions such as during overnight fast. The controller employs a compartment model, which represents the glucoregulatory system and includes submodels representing absorption of subcutaneously administered short-acting insulin Lispro and gut absorption. The controller uses Bayesian parameter estimation to determine time-varying model parameters. Moving target trajectory facilitates slow, controlled normalization of elevated glucose levels and faster normalization of low glucose values. The predictive capabilities of the model have been evaluated using data from 15 clinical experiments in subjects with type 1 diabetes. The experiments employed intravenous glucose sampling (every 15 min) and subcutaneous infusion of insulin Lispro by insulin pump (modified also every 15 min). The model gave glucose predictions with a mean square error proportionally related to the prediction horizon with the value of 0.2 mmol L(-1) per 15 min. The assessment of clinical utility of model-based glucose predictions using Clarke error grid analysis gave 95% of values in zone A and the remaining 5% of values in zone B for glucose predictions up to 60 min (n = 1674). In conclusion, adaptive nonlinear model predictive control is promising for the control of glucose concentration during fasting conditions in subjects with type 1 diabetes.

The most promising beta-cell replacement therapy for children with type 1 diabetes is a closed-loop artificial pancreas incorporating continuous glucose sensors and insulin pumps. The Medtronic MiniMed external physiological insulin delivery (ePID) system combines an external pump and sensor with a variable insulin infusion rate algorithm designed to emulate the physiological characteristics of the beta-cell. However, delays in insulin absorption associated with the subcutaneous route of delivery inevitably lead to large postprandial glucose excursions. We studied the feasibility of the Medtronic ePID system in youth with type 1 diabetes and hypothesized that small manual premeal "priming" boluses would reduce postprandial excursions during closed-loop control. Seventeen adolescents (aged 15.9 +/- 1.6 years; A1C 7.1 +/- 0.8%) underwent 34 h of closed-loop control; 8 with full closed-loop (FCL) control and 9 with hybrid closed-loop (HCL) control (premeal priming bolus). Mean glucose levels were 135 +/- 45 mg/dl in the HCL group versus 141 +/- 55 mg/dl in the FCL group (P = 0.09); daytime glucose levels averaged 149 +/- 47 mg/dl in the HCL group versus 159 +/- 59 mg/dl in the FCL group (P = 0.03). Peak postprandial glucose levels averaged 194 +/- 47 mg/dl in the HCL group versus 226 +/- 51 mg/dl in the FCL group (P = 0.04). Nighttime control was similar in both groups (111 +/- 27 vs. 112 +/- 28 mg/dl). Closed-loop glucose control using an external sensor and insulin pump provides a means to achieve near-normal glucose concentrations in youth with type 1 diabetes during the overnight period. The addition of small manual priming bolus doses of insulin, given 15 min before meals, improves postprandial glycemic excursions.