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      Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

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          Drybeans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.

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          The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11027-015-9696-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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              The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics

               Arthur Getis,  J. Ord (1992)

                Author and article information

                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0943 556X, GRID grid.418348.2, CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture, ; A.A. 6713 Cali, Colombia
                [2 ]CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Managua, Nicaragua
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2289 885X, GRID grid.433436.5, CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, ; Mexico DF, Mexico
                [4 ]CRS Catholic Relief Services, Lima, Peru
                +57 2 4450000 ,
                Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang
                Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang
                Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
                Springer Netherlands (Dordrecht )
                6 February 2016
                6 February 2016
                : 22
                : 5
                : 743-760
                6054003 9696 10.1007/s11027-015-9696-2
                © The Author(s) 2016

                Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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                © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017


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