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      Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960

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          Abstract

          Background:

          Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages.

          Methods:

          We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored.

          Results:

          The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates.

          Conclusions:

          The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime.

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          Most cited references8

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          International trends in colorectal cancer incidence rates.

          Previous studies have documented significant variations in colorectal cancer incidence rates and trends regionally and across countries. However, no study has examined the worldwide pattern using the most recently updated incidence data from the IARC. We obtained sex-specific colorectal cancer incidence for 1953-57 through 1998-2002 by cancer registry from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) databases. For 51 cancer registries with long-term incidence data, we assessed the change in the incidence rates over the past 20 years by calculating the ratio of the incidence rates in 1998-2002 to that in 1983-87. Colorectal cancer incidence rates for both males and females statistically significantly increased from 1983-87 to 1998-2002 for 27 of 51 cancer registries considered in the analysis, largely confined to economically transitioning countries including Eastern European countries, most parts of Asia, and select countries of South America. These increases were more prominent for men than for women. We also observed substantial variations in colorectal cancer incidence trends within countries such as Japan. Similarly, trends in Israel and Singapore varied significantly according to ethnicity. The United States is the only country where colorectal cancer incidence rates declined in both males and females. Colorectal cancer incidence rates continue to increase in economically transitioning countries, with incidence rates among men in the Czech Republic and Slovakia exceeding the peak incidence observed in the United States and other long-standing developed nations. Targeted prevention and early detection programs could help reverse the trend in these countries.
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            Prostate cancer incidence and mortality trends in 37 European countries: an overview.

            Prostate cancer has emerged as the most frequent cancer amongst men in Europe, with incidence increasing rapidly over the past two decades. Incidence has been uniformly increasing in the 24 countries with comparable data available, although in a few countries with very high rates (Sweden, Finland and The Netherlands), incidence has begun to fall during the last 3-4 years. The highest prostate cancer mortality rates are in the Baltic region (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Prostate cancer mortality has been decreasing in 13 of the 37 European countries considered - predominantly in higher-resource countries within each region - beginning in England and Wales (1992) and more recently in the Czech Republic (2004). There was considerable variability in the magnitude of the annual declines, varying from approximately 1% in Scotland (from 1994) to over 4% for the more recent declines in Hungary, France and the Czech Republic. There appears little relation between the extent of the increases in incidence (in the late 1990s) and the recent mortality declines. It remains unclear to what extent the increasing trends in incidence indicate true risk and how much is due to detection of latent disease. The decreasing mortality after 1990 may be attributable to improvements in treatment and to an effect of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing. The increase in mortality observed in the Baltic region and in several Central and Eastern European countries appear to reflect a real increase in risk and requires further monitoring. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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              The lifetime risk of developing breast cancer.

              The lifetime risk of developing breast cancer in U.S. women, often quoted as one in nine, is a commonly cited cancer statistic. However, many estimates have used cancer rates derived from total rather than the cancer-free population and have not properly accounted for multiple cancers in the same individual. Our purpose was to provide a revised method for calculating estimates of the lifetime risk of developing breast cancer and to aid in interpretation of the estimates. A multiple decrement life table was derived by applying age-specific incidence and mortality rates from cross-sectional data to a hypothetical cohort of women. Incidence, mortality, and population data from 1975-1988 were used, representing the geographic areas of the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. The incidence rates reflected only the first breast primary cancer; mortality rates reflected causes other than breast cancer. The population denominator used in calculating incidence rates was adjusted to reflect only those women without previously diagnosed breast cancers in the hypothetical cohort. Our calculations showed an overall lifetime risk for developing invasive breast cancer of approximately one in eight with use of 1987-1988 SEER data, although up to age 85, it was still the commonly quoted one in nine. Our estimate was calculated assuming constant age-specific rates derived from 1987-1988 SEER data. Because incidence and mortality rates change over time, conditional risk estimates over the short term (10 or 20 years) may be more reliable. A large portion of the rise in the lifetime risk of breast cancer estimated using 1975-1977 data (one in 10.6) to an estimate using 1987-1988 data (one in eight) may be attributed to 1) early detection of prevalent cases due to increased use of mammographic screening and 2) lower mortality due to causes other than breast cancer. A common misperception is that the lifetime risk estimate assumes that all women live to a particular age (e.g., 85 or 95). In fact, the calculation assumes that women can die from causes other than breast cancer at any possible age. Cutting off the lifetime risk calculation at age 85 assumes that no women develop breast cancer after that age. While the lifetime risk of developing breast cancer rose over the period 1976-1977 to 1987-1988, the lifetime risk of dying of breast cancer increased from one in 30 to one in 28, reflecting generally flat mortality trends.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Br J Cancer
                Br. J. Cancer
                British Journal of Cancer
                Nature Publishing Group
                0007-0920
                1532-1827
                03 March 2015
                03 February 2015
                3 March 2015
                : 112
                : 5
                : 943-947
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Queen Mary University of London, Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine , Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK
                [2 ]Cancer Research UK, Head of Statistical Information , Angel Building, 407 St John Street, London EC1V 4AD, UK
                Author notes
                Article
                bjc2014606
                10.1038/bjc.2014.606
                4453943
                25647015
                2b55b707-5832-4dae-b57a-cb08ec0b1e6e
                Copyright © 2015 Cancer Research UK

                This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 01 August 2014
                : 13 October 2014
                : 04 November 2014
                Categories
                Epidemiology

                Oncology & Radiotherapy
                lifetime risk,cancer incidence rates,cancer mortality rates,all-causes mortality rates,apc model

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