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      Discovering Stock Price Prediction Rules of Bombay Stock Exchange Using Rough Fuzzy Multi Layer Perception Networks

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          Abstract

          In India financial markets have existed for many years. A functionally accented, diverse, efficient and flexible financial system is vital to the national objective of creating a market driven, productive and competitive economy. Today markets of varying maturity exist in equity, debt, commodities and foreign exchange. In this work we attempt to generate prediction rules scheme for stock price movement at Bombay Stock Exchange using an important Soft Computing paradigm viz., Rough Fuzzy Multi Layer Perception. The use of Computational Intelligence Systems such as Neural Networks, Fuzzy Sets, Genetic Algorithms, etc. for Stock Market Predictions has been widely established. The process is to extract knowledge in the form of rules from daily stock movements. These rules can then be used to guide investors. To increase the efficiency of the prediction process, Rough Sets is used to discretize the data. The methodology uses a Genetic Algorithm to obtain a structured network suitable for both classification and rule extraction. The modular concept, based on divide and conquer strategy, provides accelerated training and a compact network suitable for generating a minimum number of rules with high certainty values. The concept of variable mutation operator is introduced for preserving the localized structure of the constituting Knowledge Based sub-networks, while they are integrated and evolved. Rough Set Dependency Rules are generated directly from the real valued attribute table containing Fuzzy membership values. The paradigm is thus used to develop a rule extraction algorithm. The extracted rules are compared with some of the related rule extraction techniques on the basis of some quantitative performance indices. The proposed methodology extracts rules which are less in number, are accurate, have high certainty factor and have low confusion with less computation time.

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          Multilayer perceptron, fuzzy sets, and classification.

          A fuzzy neural network model based on the multilayer perceptron, using the backpropagation algorithm, and capable of fuzzy classification of patterns is described. The input vector consists of membership values to linguistic properties while the output vector is defined in terms of fuzzy class membership values. This allows efficient modeling of fuzzy uncertain patterns with appropriate weights being assigned to the backpropagated errors depending upon the membership values at the corresponding outputs. During training, the learning rate is gradually decreased in discrete steps until the network converges to a minimum error solution. The effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated on a speech recognition problem. The results are compared with those of the conventional MLP, the Bayes classifier, and other related models.
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            Survey and critique of techniques for extracting rules from trained artificial neural networks

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              Supervised and Unsupervised Discretization of Continuous Features

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                1307.1895

                Artificial intelligence
                Artificial intelligence

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