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      Aortic Wall Inflammation Predicts Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Expansion, Rupture, and Need for Surgical Repair

      research-article
      The MA 3RS Study Investigators
      Circulation
      Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
      abdominal aortic aneurysm, MRI, repair, rupture

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          Abstract

          Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

          Abstract

          Background:

          Ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) detect cellular inflammation on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm, we assessed whether USPIO-enhanced MRI can predict aneurysm growth rates and clinical outcomes.

          Methods

          In a prospective multicenter open-label cohort study, 342 patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (diameter ≥40 mm) were classified by the presence of USPIO enhancement and were monitored with serial ultrasound and clinical follow-up for ≥2 years. The primary end point was the composite of aneurysm rupture or repair.

          Results

          Participants (85% male, 73.1±7.2 years) had a baseline aneurysm diameter of 49.6±7.7 mm, and USPIO enhancement was identified in 146 (42.7%) participants, absent in 191 (55.8%), and indeterminant in 5 (1.5%). During follow-up (1005±280 days), 17 (5.0%) abdominal aortic aneurysm ruptures, 126 (36.8%) abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs, and 48 (14.0%) deaths occurred. Compared with those without uptake, patients with USPIO enhancement have increased rates of aneurysm expansion (3.1±2.5 versus 2.5±2.4 mm/year, P=0.0424), although this was not independent of current smoking habit ( P=0.1993). Patients with USPIO enhancement had higher rates of aneurysm rupture or repair (47.3% versus 35.6%; 95% confidence intervals, 1.1–22.2; P=0.0308). This finding was similar for each component of rupture (6.8% versus 3.7%, P=0.1857) or repair (41.8% versus 32.5%, P=0.0782). USPIO enhancement was associated with reduced event-free survival for aneurysm rupture or repair ( P=0.0275), all-cause mortality ( P=0.0635), and aneurysm-related mortality ( P=0.0590). Baseline abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter ( P<0.0001) and current smoking habit ( P=0.0446) also predicted the primary outcome, and the addition of USPIO enhancement to the multivariate model did not improve event prediction (c-statistic, 0.7935–0.7936).

          Conclusions

          USPIO-enhanced MRI is a novel approach to the identification of aortic wall cellular inflammation in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms and predicts the rate of aneurysm growth and clinical outcome. However, it does not provide independent prediction of aneurysm expansion or clinical outcomes in a model incorporating known clinical risk factors.

          Clinical Trial Registration:

          URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN76413758.

          Related collections

          Most cited references34

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          • Abstract: found
          • Article: found

          Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

          The Lancet, 385(9963), 117-171
            • Record: found
            • Abstract: found
            • Article: not found

            Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond.

            Identification of key factors associated with the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and quantification of this risk using multivariable prediction algorithms are among the major advances made in preventive cardiology and cardiovascular epidemiology in the 20th century. The ongoing discovery of new risk markers by scientists presents opportunities and challenges for statisticians and clinicians to evaluate these biomarkers and to develop new risk formulations that incorporate them. One of the key questions is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by these new models. Demonstration of a statistically significant association of a new biomarker with cardiovascular risk is not enough. Some researchers have advanced that the improvement in the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) should be the main criterion, whereas others argue that better measures of performance of prediction models are needed. In this paper, we address this question by introducing two new measures, one based on integrated sensitivity and specificity and the other on reclassification tables. These new measures offer incremental information over the AUC. We discuss the properties of these new measures and contrast them with the AUC. We also develop simple asymptotic tests of significance. We illustrate the use of these measures with an example from the Framingham Heart Study. We propose that scientists consider these types of measures in addition to the AUC when assessing the performance of newer biomarkers.
              • Record: found
              • Abstract: found
              • Article: not found

              Extensions of net reclassification improvement calculations to measure usefulness of new biomarkers.

              Appropriate quantification of added usefulness offered by new markers included in risk prediction algorithms is a problem of active research and debate. Standard methods, including statistical significance and c statistic are useful but not sufficient. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) offers a simple intuitive way of quantifying improvement offered by new markers and has been gaining popularity among researchers. However, several aspects of the NRI have not been studied in sufficient detail. In this paper we propose a prospective formulation for the NRI which offers immediate application to survival and competing risk data as well as allows for easy weighting with observed or perceived costs. We address the issue of the number and choice of categories and their impact on NRI. We contrast category-based NRI with one which is category-free and conclude that NRIs cannot be compared across studies unless they are defined in the same manner. We discuss the impact of differing event rates when models are applied to different samples or definitions of events and durations of follow-up vary between studies. We also show how NRI can be applied to case-control data. The concepts presented in the paper are illustrated in a Framingham Heart Study example. In conclusion, NRI can be readily calculated for survival, competing risk, and case-control data, is more objective and comparable across studies using the category-free version, and can include relative costs for classifications. We recommend that researchers clearly define and justify the choices they make when choosing NRI for their application. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

                Author and article information

                Journal
                Circulation
                Circulation
                CIR
                Circulation
                Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
                0009-7322
                1524-4539
                29 August 2017
                28 August 2017
                : 136
                : 9
                : 787-797
                Affiliations
                From Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, Scotland.
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: Rachael Forsythe, British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Chancellor’s Building, 49 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh, Scotland, EH16 4SA. E-mail Rachael.Forsythe@ 123456ed.ac.uk
                Article
                00002
                10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.117.028433
                5571881
                28720724
                2c137a36-7bac-414d-adeb-bacafcd8b9a7
                © 2017 The Authors.

                Circulation is published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 17 March 2017
                : 17 May 2017
                Categories
                10129
                10185
                10195
                Original Research Articles
                Custom metadata
                CME
                TRUE

                abdominal aortic aneurysm,mri,repair,rupture
                abdominal aortic aneurysm, mri, repair, rupture

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