Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

Abstract

<p class="first" id="d13942421e183">Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. </p><p id="d13942421e185">This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. </p>

Related collections

Most cited references 32

Record: found
Abstract: not found
Book: not found

Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy

Silvio Funtowicz, Jerome Ravetz (1990)

0 comments Cited 180 times – based on 0 reviews

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: not found
Book: not found

The Social Amplification of Risk

Nick Pidgeon, Roger E. Kasperson, Paul Slovic (2003)

0 comments Cited 113 times – based on 0 reviews

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.

Mark Stafford Smith, Lisa Horrocks, Alex Harvey … (2011)

With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.