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      Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province

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          Abstract

          Background

          There is still a relatively serious disease burden of infectious diseases and the warning time for different infectious diseases before implementation of interventions is important. The logistic differential equation models can be used for predicting early warning of infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to compare the disease fitting effects of the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model for the first time using data on multiple infectious diseases in Jilin Province and to calculate the early warning signals for different types of infectious diseases using these two models in Jilin Province to solve the disease early warning schedule for Jilin Province throughout the year.

          Methods

          Collecting the incidence of 22 infectious diseases in Jilin Province, China. The LDE and GLDE models were used to calculate the recommended warning week (RWW), the epidemic acceleration week (EAW) and warning removed week (WRW) for acute infectious diseases with seasonality, respectively.

          Results

          Five diseases were selected for analysis based on screening principles: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), shigellosis, mumps, Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and scarlet fever. The GLDE model fitted the above diseases better (0.80 ≤  R 2  ≤ 0.94, P <  0. 005) than the LDE model. The estimated warning durations (per year) of the LDE model for the above diseases were: weeks 12–23 and 40–50; weeks 20–36; weeks 15–24 and 43–52; weeks 26–34; and weeks 16–25 and 41–50. While the durations of early warning (per year) estimated by the GLDE model were: weeks 7–24 and 36–51; weeks 13–37; weeks 11–26 and 39–54; weeks 23–35; and weeks 12–26 and 40–50.

          Conclusions

          Compared to the LDE model, the GLDE model provides a better fit to the actual disease incidence data. The RWW appeared to be earlier when estimated with the GLDE model than the LDE model. In addition, the WRW estimated with the GLDE model were more lagged and had a longer warning time.

          Supplementary Information

          The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14407-y.

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          Most cited references45

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          Advances in mRNA Vaccines for Infectious Diseases

          During the last two decades, there has been broad interest in RNA-based technologies for the development of prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines. Preclinical and clinical trials have shown that mRNA vaccines provide a safe and long-lasting immune response in animal models and humans. In this review, we summarize current research progress on mRNA vaccines, which have the potential to be quick-manufactured and to become powerful tools against infectious disease and we highlight the bright future of their design and applications.
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            Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: an epidemiological study.

            Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a common childhood illness caused by enteroviruses. Increasingly, the disease has a substantial burden throughout east and southeast Asia. To better inform vaccine and other interventions, we characterised the epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China on the basis of enhanced surveillance. We extracted epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data from cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease reported to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2012. We then compiled climatic, geographical, and demographic information. All analyses were stratified by age, disease severity, laboratory confirmation status, and enterovirus serotype. The surveillance registry included 7,200,092 probable cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (annual incidence, 1·2 per 1000 person-years from 2010-12), of which 267,942 (3·7%) were laboratory confirmed and 2457 (0·03%) were fatal. Incidence and mortality were highest in children aged 12-23 months (38·2 cases per 1000 person-years and 1·5 deaths per 100,000 person-years in 2012). Median duration from onset to diagnosis was 1·5 days (IQR 0·5-2·5) and median duration from onset to death was 3·5 days (2·5-4·5). The absolute number of patients with cardiopulmonary or neurological complications was 82,486 (case-severity rate 1·1%), and 2457 of 82486 patients with severe disease died (fatality rate 3·0%); 1617 of 1737 laboratory confirmed deaths (93%) were associated with enterovirus 71. Every year in June, hand, foot, and mouth disease peaked in north China, whereas southern China had semiannual outbreaks in May and September-October. Geographical differences in seasonal patterns were weakly associated with climate and demographic factors (variance explained 8-23% and 3-19%, respectively). This is the largest population-based study up to now of the epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease. Future mitigation policies should take into account the heterogeneities of disease burden identified. Additional epidemiological and serological studies are warranted to elucidate the dynamics and immunity patterns of local hand, foot, and mouth disease and to optimise interventions. China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, WHO, The Li Ka Shing Oxford Global Health Programme and Wellcome Trust, Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, and Health and Medical Research Fund, Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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              Vaccines for the 21st century

              In the last century, vaccination has been the most effective medical intervention to reduce death and morbidity caused by infectious diseases. It is believed that vaccines save at least 2–3 million lives per year worldwide. Smallpox has been eradicated and polio has almost disappeared worldwide through global vaccine campaigns. Most of the viral and bacterial infections that traditionally affected children have been drastically reduced thanks to national immunization programs in developed countries. However, many diseases are not yet preventable by vaccination, and vaccines have not been fully exploited for target populations such as elderly and pregnant women. This review focuses on the state of the art of recent clinical trials of vaccines for major unmet medical needs such as HIV, malaria, TB, and cancer. In addition, we describe the innovative technologies currently used in vaccine research and development including adjuvants, vectors, nucleic acid vaccines, and structure-based antigen design. The hope is that thanks to these technologies, more diseases will be addressed in the 21st century by novel preventative and therapeutic vaccines.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                dd19941229@163.com
                812304436@qq.com
                yls@jlcdc.com.cn
                guo3.1415926536@qq.com
                hannahmikah@yahoo.com
                511353697@qq.com
                ruijia5345@163.com
                381597586@qq.com
                Hwangjeff@163.com
                1320896250@qq.com
                Dengbin1227@163.com
                741205966@qq.com
                805493929@qq.com
                m18025339965@163.com
                1605852747@qq.com
                156150875@qq.com
                xujingwen1207@163.com
                yangmeng0531@163.com
                jlcdczql@126.com
                suyanhua813@xmu.edu.cn
                13698665@qq.com
                Journal
                BMC Public Health
                BMC Public Health
                BMC Public Health
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2458
                4 November 2022
                4 November 2022
                2022
                : 22
                : 2019
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.12955.3a, ISNI 0000 0001 2264 7233, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, , School of Public Health, Xiamen University, ; 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
                [2 ]Jilin Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, ChangchunJilin, China, 3145 Jing Yang Road, Green Park District, Changchun, Jilin Province People’s Republic of China
                [3 ]GRID grid.460723.4, ISNI 0000 0004 0647 4688, Yaounde Central hospital, ; Yaounde, Cameroon
                Article
                14407
                10.1186/s12889-022-14407-y
                9636661
                36333699
                2ce83d57-8eb2-4cfa-aaa3-ac5606d98f2f
                © The Author(s) 2022

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

                History
                : 24 February 2022
                : 20 October 2022
                Categories
                Research
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2022

                Public health
                logistic differential equation model,generalized logistic differential equation model,mathematical model,infectious diseases,early warning,jilin province

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