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      Holocene vegetation patterns in southern Lithuania indicate astronomical forcing on the millennial and centennial time scales

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          Abstract

          The Earth’s biota originated and developed to its current complex state through interacting with multilevel physical forcing of our planet’s climate and near and outer space phenomena. In the present study, we focus on the time scale of hundreds to thousands of years in the most recent time interval – the Holocene. Using a pollen paleocommunity dataset from southern Lithuania (Čepkeliai bog) and applying spectral analysis techniques, we tested this record for the presence of statistically significant cyclicities, which can be observed in past solar activity. The time series of non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) scores, which in our case are assumed to reflect temperature variations, and Tsallis entropy-related community compositional diversity estimates q* revealed the presence of cycles on several time scales. The most consistent periodicities are characterized by periods lasting between 201 and 240 years, which is very close to the DeVries solar cycles (208 years). A shorter-term periodicity of 176 years was detected in the NMDS scores that can be putatively linked to the subharmonics of the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, periodicities of ≈3,760 and ≈1,880 years were found in both parameters. These periodic patterns could be explained either as originating as a harmonic nonlinear response to precession forcing, or as resulting from the long-term solar activity quasicycles that were reported in previous studies of solar activity proxies.

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          Possible generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics

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            Radiocarbon Calibration and Analysis of Stratigraphy: The OxCal Program

            People usually study the chronologies of archaeological sites and geological sequences using many different kinds of evidence, taking into account calibrated radiocarbon dates, other dating methods and stratigraphic information. Many individual case studies demonstrate the value of using statistical methods to combine these different types of information. I have developed a computer program, OxCal, running under Windows 3.1 (for IBM PCs), that will perform both 14C calibration and calculate what extra information can be gained from stratigraphic evidence. The program can perform automatic wiggle matches and calculate probability distributions for samples in sequences and phases. The program is written in C++ and uses Bayesian statistics and Gibbs sampling for the calculations. The program is very easy to use, both for simple calibration and complex site analysis, and will produce graphical output from virtually any printer.
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              Deposition models for chronological records

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                s.andrej@gmail.com
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                11 October 2019
                11 October 2019
                2019
                : 9
                : 14711
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2243 2806, GRID grid.6441.7, Department of Geology and Mineralogy, Faculty of Chemistry and Geosciences, , Vilnius University, M. K. Čiurlionio 21/27, ; LT-03101 Vilnius, Lithuania
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0522 3211, GRID grid.435238.b, Institute of Geology and Geography, , Nature Research Centre, ; Akademijos Str. 2, LT-08412 Vilnius, Lithuania
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8773-5629
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9425-5634
                Article
                51321
                10.1038/s41598-019-51321-7
                6789100
                31605001
                2d4d9a9a-b7d5-440a-bfd5-4c3c9cfbc7f3
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 16 May 2019
                : 27 September 2019
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004504, Lietuvos Mokslo Taryba (Research Council of Lithuania);
                Award ID: 09.3.3- LMT-K-712
                Award ID: 09.3.3- LMT-K-712
                Award ID: 09.3.3- LMT-K-712
                Award ID: 09.3.3- LMT-K-712
                Award ID: 09.3.3- LMT-K-712
                Award ID: 09.3.3- LMT-K-712
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
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                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Uncategorized
                palaeoclimate,plant ecology
                Uncategorized
                palaeoclimate, plant ecology

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