This paper analyzes the commercial health insurance industry in an era of weakening employer commitment to providing coverage and strengthening interest by public programs to offer coverage through private plans. It documents the willingness of the industry to accept erosion of employment-based enrollment rather than to sacrifice earnings, the movement of Medicaid beneficiaries into managed care, and the distribution of market shares in the employment-based, Medicaid, and Medicare markets. The profitability of the commercial health insurance industry, exceptionally strong over the past five years, will henceforth be linked to the budgetary cycles and political fluctuations of state and federal governments.