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      Mortality and Cause of Death after Hospital Discharge in 10,981 Patients with Ischemic Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack

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          Abstract

          Background: The aim of this study was to examine the 1-year cumulative mortality rate and cause of death, and to identify the predictive factors for death after hospital discharge following ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) using data from the Japan Multicenter Stroke Investigators’ Collaboration study. Methods: We prospectively registered 16,922 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke or TIA from May 1999 to April 2000 in 156 Japanese hospitals. We mailed a questionnaire to the 15,322 patients who were alive at hospital discharge. Results: 10,981 patients (6,945 men, 4,036 women, age 70 ± 11 years, median 71, range 19–100 years) were enrolled in the follow-up study. The mean follow-up period was 271 ± 110 days (median 272 days; range 1–487 days). The 1-year cumulative mortality was 6.8% (7.0% for 10,234 stroke patients and 3.5% for 747 TIA patients). The causes of death were: cerebrovascular disease, 24.1%; pneumonia, 22.6%; heart disease, 18.1%; cancer, 11.0%, and miscellaneous causes, 24.1%. Multivariate analysis suggested that male gender, age, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, history of stroke, nonlacunar stroke, functional disability and transfer to another hospital or nursing home on discharge were significant independent predictors of death during the follow-up period. Conclusions: The major causes of death after hospital discharge were found to be cerebrovascular diseases, pneumonia and heart diseases. Thus, in order to improve survival after hospital discharge, in addition to appropriate management of vascular risk factors following stroke, it appears to be important to take measures to prevent pneumonia and to discharge patients to their own home, if possible.

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          Systematic Review of Prognostic Models in Patients with Acute Stroke

          Prognostic models in stroke may be useful in clinical practice and research. We systematically reviewed the methodology and results of studies that have identified independent predictors of survival, independence in activities of daily living, and getting home in patients with acute stroke. Eligible studies (published in full in English) included at least 100 patients in whom at least 3 predictor variables were assessed within 30 days of stroke onset and who were followed up for at least 30 days. We recorded 25 indicators of the validity and practicality of each model and identified variables that were consistent independent predictors of each outcome. Eighty-three separate prognostic models were found but most had potentially serious deficiencies in internal and statistical validity, many had limited generalisability, and none had been adequately validated. Only 4 studies met 8 simple quality criteria. Over 150 different predictor variables have been analysed but most were assessed in only 1 or 2 models. None of the existing prognostic models have been sufficiently well developed and validated to be useful in either clinical practice or research. Better quality models must be produced to enable, for example, adequate case-mix correction when comparing outcome among different groups of stroke patients.
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            Analysis of 16,922 Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack in Japan

            Objective: The purpose of the present study was to clarify the present status of stroke medicine in Japan using a hospital-based, prospective registration study of 156 hospitals from all over Japan. Methods: Consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) who presented to hospital within 7 days of onset from May 1999 to April 2000 were enrolled in this study. A common protocol was applied in every participating hospital. Results: A total of 16,922 patients (TIA, 6.4%) with a mean age of 70.6 ± 11.5 years (median 71 years, range 18–107 years) were enrolled in the study. Lacunar stroke was the most frequent stroke subtype (38.8%), followed by atherothrombotic (33.3%), cardioembolic (21.8%) and other stroke (6.1%). NIH stroke scale score on admission was 8.0 ± 7.9 (median 5; 25th to 75th percentile, 2–11). 36.8% arrived at hospital within 3 h of symptom onset, and 49.5% within 6 h. The ambulance was used for 70.2% of patients arriving within 3 h after onset, but in only 29.9% of patients visiting the hospital later than 3 h after onset (p < 0.0001). 60.8% displayed good outcome (modified Rankin Scale score of 0–2 at discharge), while 32.3% displayed poor outcome (score 3–5), and mortality rate was 6.9%. Conclusions: More than half of the acute stroke patients arrived at hospital later than 6 h after onset. Establishment of ideal emergency systems is needed for better management of stroke and for improvement of patient outcome, in particular, in the future after approval of intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator for acute ischemic stroke by the Japanese government.
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              Hospital-based prospective registration of acute ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack in Japan

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                CED
                Cerebrovasc Dis
                10.1159/issn.1015-9770
                Cerebrovascular Diseases
                S. Karger AG
                1015-9770
                1421-9786
                2005
                February 2005
                02 March 2005
                : 19
                : 3
                : 171-178
                Affiliations
                Cerebrovascular Division, Department of Medicine, National Cardiovascular Center, Osaka City, Japan
                Article
                83252 Cerebrovasc Dis 2005;19:171–178
                10.1159/000083252
                15644630
                2e049b90-d2dc-431d-a13b-ea23b688fd09
                © 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel

                Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

                History
                : 12 February 2004
                : 07 September 2004
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 4, References: 22, Pages: 8
                Categories
                Original Paper

                Geriatric medicine,Neurology,Cardiovascular Medicine,Neurosciences,Clinical Psychology & Psychiatry,Public health
                Stroke management,Transient ischemic attack,Brain infarction,Stroke, acute

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