Phylogeography, hotspots and conservation priorities: an example from the Top End of Australia

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.

We present a new, broadly applicable measure of the spatial restriction of phylogenetic diversity, termed phylogenetic endemism (PE). PE combines the widely used phylogenetic diversity and weighted endemism measures to identify areas where substantial components of phylogenetic diversity are restricted. Such areas are likely to be of considerable importance for conservation. PE has a number of desirable properties not combined in previous approaches. It assesses endemism consistently, independent of taxonomic status or level, and independent of previously defined political or biological regions. The results can be directly compared between areas because they are based on equivalent spatial units. PE builds on previous phylogenetic analyses of endemism, but provides a more general solution for mapping endemism of lineages. We illustrate the broad applicability of PE using examples of Australian organisms having contrasting life histories: pea-flowered shrubs of the genus Daviesia (Fabaceae) and the Australian species of the Australo-Papuan tree frog radiation within the family Hylidae.

Understanding spatial patterns of biodiversity is critical for conservation planning, particularly given rapid habitat loss and human-induced climatic change. Diversity and endemism are typically assessed by comparing species ranges across regions. However, investigation of patterns of species diversity alone misses out on the full richness of patterns that can be inferred using a phylogenetic approach. Here, using Australian Acacia as an example, we show that the application of phylogenetic methods, particularly two new measures, relative phylogenetic diversity and relative phylogenetic endemism, greatly enhances our knowledge of biodiversity across both space and time. We found that areas of high species richness and species endemism are not necessarily areas of high phylogenetic diversity or phylogenetic endemism. We propose a new method called categorical analysis of neo- and paleo-endemism (CANAPE) that allows, for the first time, a clear, quantitative distinction between centres of neo- and paleo-endemism, useful to the conservation decision-making process.