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      Case Study of Fog Predictability for an Event with Cold-Front Synoptic Pattern

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          Abstract

          Fog has recently become a frequent high-impact weather phenomenon along the coastal regions of North China. Accurate fog forecasting remains challenging due to limited understanding of the predictability and mechanism of fog formation associated with synoptic-scale circulation. One frequent synoptic pattern of fog formation in this area is associated with cold front passage (cold-front synoptic pattern, CFSP). This paper explored the predictability of a typical CFSP fog event from the perspective of analyzing key characteristics of synoptic-scale circulation determining fog forecasting performance and the possible mechanism. The event was ensemble forecasted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two groups of ensemble members with good and bad forecasting performance were selected and composited. Results showed that the predictability of this case was largely determined by the simulated strengths of the cold-front circulation ( i.e., trough and ridge and the associated surface high). The bad-performing members tended to have a weaker ridge behind a stronger trough, and associated higher pressure over land and a weaker surface high over the sea, leading to an adverse impact on strength and direction of steering flows that inhibit warm moist advection and enhance cold dry advection transported to the focus region. Associated with this cold dry advection, adverse synoptic conditions of stratification and moisture for fog formation were produced, consequently causing failure of fog forecasting in the focus region. This study highlights the importance of accurate synoptic-scale information for improved CFSP fog forecasting, and enhances understanding of fog predictability from perspective of synoptic-scale circulation.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          JOUC
          Journal of Ocean University of China
          Science Press and Springer (China )
          1672-5182
          07 May 2019
          01 April 2019
          : 18
          : 2
          : 271-281
          Affiliations
          1 College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
          2 Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
          3 Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266103, China
          4 North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center of State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266033, China
          Author notes
          *Corresponding author: HUANG Fei
          Article
          s11802-019-3823-8
          10.1007/s11802-019-3823-8
          Copyright © Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2019.

          The copyright to this article, including any graphic elements therein (e.g. illustrations, charts, moving images), is hereby assigned for good and valuable consideration to the editorial office of Journal of Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer effective if and when the article is accepted for publication and to the extent assignable if assignability is restricted for by applicable law or regulations (e.g. for U.S. government or crown employees).

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          Self URI (journal-page): https://www.springer.com/journal/11802

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