Seizure prediction — ready for a new era

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Abstract

Epilepsy is a common disorder characterized by recurrent seizures. An overwhelming majority of people with epilepsy regard the unpredictability of seizures as a major issue. More than 30 years of international effort have been devoted to the prediction of seizures, aiming to remove the burden of unpredictability and to couple novel, time-specific treatment to seizure prediction technology. A highly influential review published in 2007 concluded that insufficient evidence indicated that seizures could be predicted. Since then, several advances have been made, including successful prospective seizure prediction using intracranial EEG in a small number of people in a trial of a real-time seizure prediction device. In this Review, we examine advances in the field, including EEG databases, seizure prediction competitions, the prospective trial mentioned and advances in our understanding of the mechanisms of seizures. We argue that these advances, together with statistical evaluations, set the stage for a resurgence in efforts towards the development of seizure prediction methodologies. We propose new avenues of investigation involving a synergy between mechanisms, models, data, devices and algorithms and refine the existing guidelines for the development of seizure prediction technology to instigate development of a solution that removes the burden of the unpredictability of seizures.

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Prediction of seizure likelihood with a long-term, implanted seizure advisory system in patients with drug-resistant epilepsy: a first-in-man study.

Mark J Cook, Terence J O'Brien, Samuel F Berkovic … (2013)

Seizure prediction would be clinically useful in patients with epilepsy and could improve safety, increase independence, and allow acute treatment. We did a multicentre clinical feasibility study to assess the safety and efficacy of a long-term implanted seizure advisory system designed to predict seizure likelihood and quantify seizures in adults with drug-resistant focal seizures. We enrolled patients at three centres in Melbourne, Australia, between March 24, 2010, and June 21, 2011. Eligible patients had between two and 12 disabling partial-onset seizures per month, a lateralised epileptogenic zone, and no history of psychogenic seizures. After devices were surgically implanted, patients entered a data collection phase, during which an algorithm for identification of periods of high, moderate, and low seizure likelihood was established. If the algorithm met performance criteria (ie, sensitivity of high-likelihood warnings greater than 65% and performance better than expected through chance prediction of randomly occurring events), patients then entered an advisory phase and received information about seizure likelihood. The primary endpoint was the number of device-related adverse events at 4 months after implantation. Our secondary endpoints were algorithm performance at the end of the data collection phase, clinical effectiveness (measures of anxiety, depression, seizure severity, and quality of life) 4 months after initiation of the advisory phase, and longer-term adverse events. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01043406. We implanted 15 patients with the advisory system. 11 device-related adverse events were noted within four months of implantation, two of which were serious (device migration, seroma); an additional two serious adverse events occurred during the first year after implantation (device-related infection, device site reaction), but were resolved without further complication. The device met enabling criteria in 11 patients upon completion of the data collection phase, with high likelihood performance estimate sensitivities ranging from 65% to 100%. Three patients' algorithms did not meet performance criteria and one patient required device removal because of an adverse event before sufficient training data were acquired. We detected no significant changes in clinical effectiveness measures between baseline and 4 months after implantation. This study showed that intracranial electroencephalographic monitoring is feasible in ambulatory patients with drug-resistant epilepsy. If these findings are replicated in larger, longer studies, accurate definition of preictal electrical activity might improve understanding of seizure generation and eventually lead to new management strategies. NeuroVista. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Seizure prediction: the long and winding road.

Florian Mormann, Ralph Andrzejak, Christian Elger … (2007)

The sudden and apparently unpredictable nature of seizures is one of the most disabling aspects of the disease epilepsy. A method capable of predicting the occurrence of seizures from the electroencephalogram (EEG) of epilepsy patients would open new therapeutic possibilities. Since the 1970s investigations on the predictability of seizures have advanced from preliminary descriptions of seizure precursors to controlled studies applying prediction algorithms to continuous multi-day EEG recordings. While most of the studies published in the 1990s and around the turn of the millennium yielded rather promising results, more recent evaluations could not reproduce these optimistic findings, thus raising a debate about the validity and reliability of previous investigations. In this review, we will critically discuss the literature on seizure prediction and address some of the problems and pitfalls involved in the designing and testing of seizure-prediction algorithms. We will give an account of the current state of this research field, point towards possible future developments and propose methodological guidelines for future studies on seizure prediction.

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The application of graph theoretical analysis to complex networks in the brain.

Jaap Reijneveld, Sophie Ponten, Henk Berendse … (2007)

Considering the brain as a complex network of interacting dynamical systems offers new insights into higher level brain processes such as memory, planning, and abstract reasoning as well as various types of brain pathophysiology. This viewpoint provides the opportunity to apply new insights in network sciences, such as the discovery of small world and scale free networks, to data on anatomical and functional connectivity in the brain. In this review we start with some background knowledge on the history and recent advances in network theories in general. We emphasize the correlation between the structural properties of networks and the dynamics of these networks. We subsequently demonstrate through evidence from computational studies, in vivo experiments, and functional MRI, EEG and MEG studies in humans, that both the functional and anatomical connectivity of the healthy brain have many features of a small world network, but only to a limited extent of a scale free network. The small world structure of neural networks is hypothesized to reflect an optimal configuration associated with rapid synchronization and information transfer, minimal wiring costs, resilience to certain types of damage, as well as a balance between local processing and global integration. Eventually, we review the current knowledge on the effects of focal and diffuse brain disease on neural network characteristics, and demonstrate increasing evidence that both cognitive and psychiatric disturbances, as well as risk of epileptic seizures, are correlated with (changes in) functional network architectural features.