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      Community disaster exposure and first onset of depression: A panel analysis of nationally representative South African data, 2008–2017


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          Sub-Saharan Africa faces unprecedented disasters, with climate change expected to exacerbate the frequency and severity of unpredictable and stressful catastrophic events. Unlike developed nations, reconstruction in developing nations is hindered by resource constraints, with certain communities potentially experiencing multiple and enduring effects of disasters. Despite the potential danger of such cumulative community disaster exposure on mental health (e.g. depression), large-scale population-level evidence for the region is limited. We investigated the association between exposure to cumulative disaster and the first onset of depression in a nationally representative survey in South Africa. We used panel data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS) from 2008–2017, consisting of 17,255 adult study participants who were depression free at baseline. Risk of first depression onset between individuals exposed and unexposed to community disaster was measured, accounting for multiple disaster exposure over time by fitting generalized estimating equation (GEE) regression models. Data on the geographic location of disasters were obtained from the South African government gazette, and mapped with the government delineated SA-NIDS households’ locations. Of the sampled individuals, 2,986 were exposed to disaster during the study duration (17.3%). Increased cumulative community disaster was significantly associated with the likelihood of depression onset (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.20, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09–1.33), even after controlling for socio-demographic factors. In sub-group analyses, greater likelihood of depression onset was found among females [but not in men] (aRR = 1.23, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09–1.38), Black African [but not in other population group] (aRR = 1.21, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09–1.36), lower education attainment group [but not in tertiary and above educational attainment group] (aRR = 1.20, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.08–1.33), and lower income attainment group [but not in the top income quartile group] (aRR = 1.24, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.11–1.38), due to cumulative community disaster. Although cumulative community disaster exposure was significantly associated with the first onset of depression, its negative impact may be more pronounced among individuals considered chronically socially vulnerable (i.e. the groups above) in South Africa. Given that many individuals in South Africa rely on social, food parcel relief, and health services from government/public sector, timely access to community-based supportive intervention is needed for disaster survivors, prioritizing socially vulnerable groups to help mitigate problems associated with mental health challenges.

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          Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

          Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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            Screening for Depression in Well Older Adults: Evaluation of a Short Form of the CES-D

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              Screening for depression in well older adults: evaluation of a short form of the CES-D (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale).

              We derived and tested a short form of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) for reliability and validity among a sample of well older adults in a large Health Maintenance Organization. The 10-item screening questionnaire, the CESD-10, showed good predictive accuracy when compared to the full-length 20-item version of the CES-D (kappa = .97, P or = 16 for the full-length questionnaire and > or = 10 for the 10-item version. We discuss other potential cutoff values. The CESD-10 showed an expected positive correlation with poorer health status scores (r = .37) and a strong negative correlation with positive affect (r = -.63). Retest correlations for the CESD-10 were comparable to those in other studies (r = .71). We administered the CESD-10 again after 12 months, and scores were stable with strong correlation of r = .59.

                Author and article information

                PLOS Clim
                PLOS Clim
                PLOS climate
                6 April 2022
                31 August 2023
                15 September 2023
                : 1
                : 4
                : 0000024
                [1 ]Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
                [2 ]KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
                [3 ]School of Nursing and Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
                [4 ]Africa Health Research Institute, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
                [5 ]Department of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
                [6 ]School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
                [7 ]Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
                [8 ]Department of Psychiatry, School of Clinical Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa,
                [9 ]Centre for Transformative Agricultural and Food Systems, School of Agriculture, Earth and Environmental Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
                [10 ]International Water Management Institute (IWMI-GH)—West Africa Regional Office, Accra, Ghana
                [11 ]School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
                [12 ]Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College, London, United Kingdom
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                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.



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