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      ¿Hay evidencia de ciclo político-económico en el empleo sectorial de México, 1998-2013? Translated title: Is there any evidence of political-business cycle in the sectorial employment of Mexico, 1998-2013?

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          Abstract

          Resumen: El objetivo de este documento es determinar si existe evidencia de ciclo político-económico en el empleo sectorial de México durante el periodo 1998-2013. A partir de la estimación de modelos de panel, y controlando por los efectos de los principales determinantes del empleo, se encontró que no existe evidencia acorde con las predicciones del modelo teórico oportunista, es decir, si bien el empleo muestra un crecimiento antes y durante las elecciones, este resultado no es estadísticamente significativo ni robusto. Además, no se presenta la contracción del empleo posterior a los comicios o al cambio de poder. No obstante, se encuentra un efecto positivo de la producción y uno negativo de los salarios reales sobre el empleo.

          Translated abstract

          Abstract: This paper looks for evidence of political-business cycles associated to the presidential elections in the Mexican sectorial employment over the period 1998-2013. By estimating panel data models, and controlling for the effects of the major determinants of employment, no evidence consistent with the predictions of the theoretical opportunistic model is found, i.e. whereas employment shows an expansion before and during the elections periods, the estimates are neither statistically significant nor robust. Furthermore, employment does not experience contractions after the elections or the office taking periods. Notwithstanding, the evidence suggests that employment is positively and negatively affected by output and real wages, respectively.

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          Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy

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            Análisis econométrico

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              Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                cya
                Contaduría y administración
                Contad. Adm
                Facultad de Contaduría y Administración, UNAM (México, DF, Mexico )
                0186-1042
                March 2017
                : 62
                : 1
                : 25-43
                Affiliations
                [1] orgnameUniversidad Autónoma del Estado de México Mexico
                Article
                S0186-10422017000100025
                10.1016/j.cya.2016.07.004
                34132c44-44e0-41a0-a9d9-15d1103e0b49

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 03 November 2015
                : 02 December 2014
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 52, Pages: 19
                Product

                SciELO Mexico


                Employment,Political business cycle,Wages,Production,D72,E32,E24,E61,Ciclo político-económico,Empleo,Salarios,Producción

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