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      Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine ( Gulo gulo L.)

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          Abstract

          Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human‐derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large‐scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species’ local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines ( Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km 2 gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack—expected to decrease with climate change—was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

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          ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY RATES WHEN DETECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN ONE

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            Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.

            Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
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              Synergies among extinction drivers under global change.

              If habitat destruction or overexploitation of populations is severe, species loss can occur directly and abruptly. Yet the final descent to extinction is often driven by synergistic processes (amplifying feedbacks) that can be disconnected from the original cause of decline. We review recent observational, experimental and meta-analytic work which together show that owing to interacting and self-reinforcing processes, estimates of extinction risk for most species are more severe than previously recognised. As such, conservation actions which only target single-threat drivers risk being inadequate because of the cascading effects caused by unmanaged synergies. Future work should focus on how climate change will interact with and accelerate ongoing threats to biodiversity, such as habitat degradation, overexploitation and invasive species.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                heimnikki@gmail.com
                Journal
                Ecol Evol
                Ecol Evol
                10.1002/(ISSN)2045-7758
                ECE3
                Ecology and Evolution
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2045-7758
                21 September 2017
                November 2017
                : 7
                : 21 ( doiID: 10.1002/ece3.2017.7.issue-21 )
                : 8903-8914
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] University of Victoria Victoria BC Canada
                [ 2 ] InnoTech Alberta University of Victoria Victoria BC Canada
                [ 3 ] Western Transportation Institute Montana State University Bozeman MT USA
                [ 4 ] Alberta Environment and Parks Edmonton AB Canada
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence

                Nicole Heim, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

                Email: heimnikki@ 123456gmail.com

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1164-7558
                Article
                ECE33337
                10.1002/ece3.3337
                5677488
                29152186
                34697d60-2e35-412a-bf10-4ef680c5fb59
                © 2017 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 08 April 2017
                : 12 July 2017
                : 19 July 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 4, Pages: 12, Words: 10132
                Funding
                Funded by: Alberta Innovates – Technology Futures
                Award ID: Eastern Slopes Predator Project Funding
                Funded by: University of Victoria
                Funded by: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
                Funded by: Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative
                Funded by: Alpine Club of Canada Disney Conservation Fund Parks Canada Patagonia Environmental Fund National Geographic Society
                Funded by: Committee Research Exploration TD Environment Western Transportation Institute
                Funded by: Montana State University Woodcock Foundation
                Categories
                Original Research
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                ece33337
                November 2017
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.2.1 mode:remove_FC converted:08.11.2017

                Evolutionary Biology
                human footprint,interspecific interactions,mesocarnivore,occupancy,species distribution

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