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      Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) score does not predict injury in English Premier League youth academy football players

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          Most cited references14

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          Limitations of the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening marker.

          M. S. Pepe (2004)
          A marker strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying persons according to their current or future outcome. However, for this assumption to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiologic studies. In this paper, an illustration of the relation between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio of as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10% of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will correctly identify only 25% of cases as positive (true positives). The authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker's ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. In addition, the serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.
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            Why screening tests to predict injury do not work-and probably never will…: a critical review.

            Roald Bahr (2016)
            This paper addresses if and how a periodic health examination to screen for risk factors for injury can be used to mitigate injury risk. The key question asked is whether it is possible to use screening tests to identify who is at risk for a sports injury-in order to address the deficit through a targeted intervention programme. The paper demonstrates that to validate a screening test to predict and prevent sports injuries, at least 3 steps are needed. First, a strong relationship needs to be demonstrated in prospective studies between a marker from a screening test and injury risk (step 1). Second, the test properties need to be examined in relevant populations, using appropriate statistical tools (step 2). Unfortunately, there is currently no example of a screening test for sports injuries with adequate test properties. Given the nature of potential screening tests (where test performance is usually measured on a continuous scale from low to high), substantial overlap is to be expected between players with high and low risk of injury. Therefore, although there are a number of tests demonstrating a statistically significant association with injury risk, and therefore help the understanding of causative factors, such tests are unlikely to be able to predict injury with sufficient accuracy. The final step needed is to document that an intervention programme targeting athletes identified as being at high risk through a screening programme is more beneficial than the same intervention programme given to all athletes (step 3). To date, there is no intervention study providing support for screening for injury risk.
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              • Record: found
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              Risk factors for sports injuries -- a methodological approach

              R Bahr (2003)
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Science and Medicine in Football
                Science and Medicine in Football
                Informa UK Limited
                2473-3938
                2473-4446
                July 04 2017
                May 04 2017
                February 13 2017
                May 04 2017
                : 1
                : 2
                : 102-106
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Research & Development Department, Arsenal Football Club, London, UK
                [2 ] Institute of Sport, Exercise and Health, University College London, London, UK
                [3 ] Research & Development Department, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK
                [4 ] Institute of Sport and Preventive Medicine, Saarland University, Saarbrücken, Germany
                Article
                10.1080/24733938.2017.1283436
                34bd6ae0-9463-4fc3-90e9-0326e2c02637
                © 2017
                History

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