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      A demographic dividend of the FP2020 Initiative and the SDG reproductive health target: Case studies of India and Nigeria

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      Gates Open Research
      F1000 Research Limited
      demographic dividend, FP2020, SDG, Nigeria, India

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          Abstract

          Background: The demographic dividend, defined as the economic growth potential resulting from favorable shifts in population age structure following rapid fertility decline, has been widely employed to advocate improving access to family planning. The current framework focuses on the long-term potential, while the short-term benefits may also help persuade policy makers to invest in family planning.

          Methods: We estimate the short- and medium-term economic benefits from two major family planning goals: the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020)’s goal of adding 120 million modern contraceptive users by 2020; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3.7 of ensuring universal access to family planning by 2030. We apply the cohort component method to World Population Prospects and National Transfer Accounts data. India and Nigeria, respectively the most populous Asian and African country under the FP2020 initiative, are used as case studies.

          Results: Meeting the FP2020 target implies that on average, the number of children that need to be supported by every 100 working-age people would decrease by 8 persons in India and 11 persons in Nigeria in 2020; the associated reduction remains at 8 persons in India, but increases to 14 persons in Nigeria by 2030 under the SDG 3.7. In India meeting the FP2020 target would yield a saving of US$18.2 billion (PPP) in consumption expenditures for children and youth in the year 2020 alone, and that increased to US$89.7 billion by 2030. In Nigeria the consumption saved would be US$2.5 billion in 2020 and $12.9 billion by 2030.

          Conclusions: The tremendous economic benefits from meeting the FP2020 and SDG family planning targets demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of investment in promoting access to contraceptive methods. The gap already apparent between the observed and targeted trajectories indicates tremendous missing opportunities. Accelerated progress is needed to achieve the FP2020 and SDG goals and so reap the demographic dividend.

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          Most cited references13

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          Family planning: the unfinished agenda.

          Promotion of family planning in countries with high birth rates has the potential to reduce poverty and hunger and avert 32% of all maternal deaths and nearly 10% of childhood deaths. It would also contribute substantially to women's empowerment, achievement of universal primary schooling, and long-term environmental sustainability. In the past 40 years, family-planning programmes have played a major part in raising the prevalence of contraceptive practice from less than 10% to 60% and reducing fertility in developing countries from six to about three births per woman. However, in half the 75 larger low-income and lower-middle income countries (mainly in Africa), contraceptive practice remains low and fertility, population growth, and unmet need for family planning are high. The cross-cutting contribution to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals makes greater investment in family planning in these countries compelling. Despite the size of this unfinished agenda, international funding and promotion of family planning has waned in the past decade. A revitalisation of the agenda is urgently needed. Historically, the USA has taken the lead but other governments or agencies are now needed as champions. Based on the sizeable experience of past decades, the key features of effective programmes are clearly established. Most governments of poor countries already have appropriate population and family-planning policies but are receiving too little international encouragement and funding to implement them with vigour. What is currently missing is political willingness to incorporate family planning into the development arena.
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            Countdown to 2015 and beyond: fulfilling the health agenda for women and children.

            The end of 2015 will signal the end of the Millennium Development Goal era, when the world can take stock of what has been achieved. The Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival (Countdown) has focused its 2014 report on how much has been achieved in intervention coverage in these groups, and on how best to sustain, focus, and intensify efforts to progress for this and future generations. Our 2014 results show unfinished business in achievement of high, sustained, and equitable coverage of essential interventions. Progress has accelerated in the past decade in most Countdown countries, suggesting that further gains are possible with intensified actions. Some of the greatest coverage gaps are in family planning, interventions addressing newborn mortality, and case management of childhood diseases. Although inequities are pervasive, country successes in reaching of the poorest populations provide lessons for other countries to follow. As we transition to the next set of global goals, we must remember the centrality of data to accountability, and the importance of support of country capacity to collect and use high-quality data on intervention coverage and inequities for decision making. To fulfill the health agenda for women and children both now and beyond 2015 requires continued monitoring of country and global progress; Countdown is committed to playing its part in this effort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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              Global population trends and policy options.

              Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data CurationRole: Formal AnalysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ResourcesRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – Original Draft PreparationRole: Writing – Review & Editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding AcquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Project AdministrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – Review & Editing
                Journal
                Gates Open Res
                Gates Open Res
                Gates Open Res
                Gates Open Research
                F1000 Research Limited (London, UK )
                2572-4754
                22 February 2018
                : 2
                : 11
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Bill & Melinda Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
                [1 ]Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
                [1 ]Department of Statistics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
                Author notes

                No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6390-6921
                Article
                10.12688/gatesopenres.12803.1
                5883068
                350c9647-5136-4807-abec-c488989af820
                Copyright: © 2018 Li Q and Rimon JG

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 20 February 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
                Award ID: OPP117_01
                Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP117_01].
                The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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                demographic dividend,fp2020,sdg,nigeria,india
                demographic dividend, fp2020, sdg, nigeria, india

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