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      Integrated screening and treatment services for HIV, hypertension and diabetes in Kenya: assessing the epidemiological impact and cost‐effectiveness from a national and regional perspective

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          As people with HIV age, prevention and management of other communicable and non‐communicable diseases (NCDs) will become increasingly important. Integration of screening and treatment for HIV and NCDs is a promising approach for addressing the dual burden of these diseases. The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological impact and cost‐effectiveness of a community‐wide integrated programme for screening and treatment of HIV, hypertension and diabetes in Kenya.

          Methods

          Coupling a microsimulation of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) with a population‐based model of HIV dynamics (the Spectrum), we created a hybrid HIV/CVD model. Interventions were modelled from year 2019 (baseline) to 2023, and population was followed to 2033. Analyses were carried at a national level and for three selected regions (Nairobi, Coast and Central).

          Results

          At a national level, the model projected 7.62 million individuals living with untreated hypertension, 692,000 with untreated diabetes and 592,000 individuals in need of ART in year 2018. Improving ART coverage from 68% at baseline to 88% in 2033 reduced HIV incidence by an estimated 64%. Providing NCD treatment to 50% of diagnosed cases from 2019 to 2023 and maintaining them on treatment afterwards could avert 116,000 CVD events and 43,600 CVD deaths in Kenya over the next 15 years. At a regional level, the estimated impact of expanded HIV services was highest in Nairobi region (averting 42,100 HIV infections compared to baseline) while Central region experienced the highest impact of expanded NCD treatment (with a reduction of 22,200 CVD events). The integrated HIV/NCD intervention could avert 7.76 million disability‐adjusted‐life‐years (DALYs) over 15 years at an estimated cost of $6.68 billion ($445.27 million per year), or $860.30 per DALY averted. At a cost‐effectiveness threshold of $2,010 per DALY averted, the probability of cost‐effectiveness was 0.92, ranging from 0.71 in Central to 0.92 in Nairobi region.

          Conclusions

          Integrated screening and treatment of HIV and NCDs can be a cost‐effective and impactful approach to save lives of people with HIV in Kenya, although important variation exists at the regional level. Containing the substantial costs required for scale‐up will be critical for management of HIV and NCDs on a national scale.

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          Most cited references37

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          General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study.

          Separate multivariable risk algorithms are commonly used to assess risk of specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, ie, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. The present report presents a single multivariable risk function that predicts risk of developing all CVD and of its constituents. We used Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event in 8491 Framingham study participants (mean age, 49 years; 4522 women) who attended a routine examination between 30 and 74 years of age and were free of CVD. Sex-specific multivariable risk functions ("general CVD" algorithms) were derived that incorporated age, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking, and diabetes status. We assessed the performance of the general CVD algorithms for predicting individual CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or heart failure). Over 12 years of follow-up, 1174 participants (456 women) developed a first CVD event. All traditional risk factors evaluated predicted CVD risk (multivariable-adjusted P<0.0001). The general CVD algorithm demonstrated good discrimination (C statistic, 0.763 [men] and 0.793 [women]) and calibration. Simple adjustments to the general CVD risk algorithms allowed estimation of the risks of each CVD component. Two simple risk scores are presented, 1 based on all traditional risk factors and the other based on non-laboratory-based predictors. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm can be conveniently used to assess general CVD risk and risk of individual CVD events (coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral arterial disease and heart failure). The estimated absolute CVD event rates can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.
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            Regional variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest incidence and outcome.

            The health and policy implications of regional variation in incidence and outcome of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest remain to be determined. To evaluate whether cardiac arrest incidence and outcome differ across geographic regions. Prospective observational study (the Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium) of all out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in 10 North American sites (8 US and 2 Canadian) from May 1, 2006, to April 30, 2007, followed up to hospital discharge, and including data available as of June 28, 2008. Cases (aged 0-108 years) were assessed by organized emergency medical services (EMS) personnel, did not have traumatic injury, and received attempts at external defibrillation or chest compressions or resuscitation was not attempted. Census data were used to determine rates adjusted for age and sex. Incidence rate, mortality rate, case-fatality rate, and survival to discharge for patients assessed or treated by EMS personnel or with an initial rhythm of ventricular fibrillation. Among the 10 sites, the total catchment population was 21.4 million, and there were 20,520 cardiac arrests. A total of 11,898 (58.0%) had resuscitation attempted; 2729 (22.9% of treated) had initial rhythm of ventricular fibrillation or ventricular tachycardia or rhythms that were shockable by an automated external defibrillator; and 954 (4.6% of total) were discharged alive. The median incidence of EMS-treated cardiac arrest across sites was 52.1 (interquartile range [IQR], 48.0-70.1) per 100,000 population; survival ranged from 3.0% to 16.3%, with a median of 8.4% (IQR, 5.4%-10.4%). Median ventricular fibrillation incidence was 12.6 (IQR, 10.6-5.2) per 100,000 population; survival ranged from 7.7% to 39.9%, with a median of 22.0% (IQR, 15.0%-24.4%), with significant differences across sites for incidence and survival (P<.001). In this study involving 10 geographic regions in North America, there were significant and important regional differences in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest incidence and outcome.
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              Community surveillance of coronary heart disease in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study: methods and initial two years' experience.

              The community surveillance component of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study is designed to estimate patterns and trends of coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence, case fatality, and mortality in four U.S. communities. Community surveillance involves ongoing review of death certificates and hospital discharge records to identify CHD events in community residents aged 35-74 years. Interviews with next of kin and questionnaires completed by physicians and medical examiners or coroners were used to collect information on deaths, and review and abstraction of hospital records were used to collect information on possible fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarctions (MIs). Events were classified using standardized criteria. The initial 2-years' experience with case ascertainment and availability of information needed for classification of events is described. Average annual age-adjusted attack rates of definite MI and CHD mortality rates for blacks in two communities and whites in the four communities are presented and compared with rates based on unvalidated hospital discharge data and vital statistics. Age-adjusted rates based on ARIC classification of definite MI were lower than those based on hospital discharge diagnosis code 410 (e.g., 5.60/1000 and 11.50/1000 among Forsyth County white men, respectively). Age-adjusted rates of definite fatal CHD based on ARIC classification were similarly lower than rates based on underlying cause of death code 410; for example, Jackson black men had rates of 2.82/1000 and 4.52/1000 for definite fatal CHD and UCOD 410-414 or 429.2, respectively.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                pkasaie@jhu.edu
                Journal
                J Int AIDS Soc
                J Int AIDS Soc
                10.1002/(ISSN)1758-2652
                JIA2
                Journal of the International AIDS Society
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                1758-2652
                19 June 2020
                June 2020
                : 23
                : Suppl 1 , Integrating services for HIV and related comorbidities: modelling to inform policy and practice. Guest Editor: David W. Dowdy, Timothy B. Hallett, Kimberly A. Powers ( doiID: 10.1002/jia2.v23.s1 )
                : e25499
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Department of Epidemiology The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore MD USA
                [ 2 ] Department of Health, Behavior and Society The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore MD USA
                [ 3 ] Avenir Health Glastonbury CT USA
                [ 4 ] Department of Cultures, Societies and Global Studies Integrated Initiative for Global Health Northeastern University Boston MA USA
                [ 5 ] National AIDS Control Council Nairobi Kenya
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Corresponding author: Parastu Kasaie, 615 N Wolfe St, E6530, Baltimore 21205, USA. Tel: (001) 443 287 6179. ( pkasaie@ 123456jhu.edu )
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3744-9501
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0665-9124
                Article
                JIA225499
                10.1002/jia2.25499
                7305418
                32562353
                3541062b-2e78-4ded-ad49-46304e9fcb72
                © 2020 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 27 September 2019
                : 28 February 2020
                : 03 April 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 6, Pages: 13, Words: 9386
                Funding
                Funded by: Desmond M. Tutu endowment at the Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health and Human Rights.
                Funded by: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , open-funder-registry 10.13039/100000060;
                Award ID: K01AI138853
                Funded by: Fogarty International Center , open-funder-registry 10.13039/100000061;
                Categories
                Research Article
                Supplement: Research Articles
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                June 2020
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.8.4 mode:remove_FC converted:20.06.2020

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                hiv,diabetes mellitus,hypertension,kenya,cost‐benefit analysis,computer simulation

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