Korea is experiencing an extraordinarily rapid demographic transition. We investigated
the short-term association between air pollution and mortality and assessed the impact
of improved air quality on mortality in a rapidly aging city, Seoul, Korea. The generalized
additive model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risks (RR) of mortality associated
with changes in air pollution. The time trends, seasonal variations, day of the week
effects, and weather effects were controlled in the models. To estimate the health
benefits, we used the US Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP. For people 0-64
years of age, elderly people (65+ years), and all age groups, an increase of 10 microg/m(3)
in PM(10) was associated with increases in daily death counts of 0.27% (95% CI: 0.04-0.50),
0.45% (95% CI: 0.27-0.64), and 0.37% (95% CI: 0.23-0.52), respectively. For ages 0-64
years, elderly people, and all age groups, a 10 ppb increase in 1-hour maximum ozone
concentration resulted in an increased risk of daily death counts of 0.28% (95% CI:
-0.19-0.74), 0.96% (95% CI: 0.46-1.47), and 0.81% (95% CI: 0.35-1.26), respectively.
For elderly people, it was estimated that the health benefits of attaining the World
Health Organization's (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQGs) for PM(10) (24-hour average
50 microg/m(3)) would suggest an annual reduction of 964 (95% CI: 564-1366) premature
deaths, and 329 (95% CI: 159-500) premature deaths could be prevented annually in
2015 from attaining the WHO's guidelines for ozone (8-hour average 100 microg/m(3)).
The rapid increase of the elderly population has major consequences and implications
for society and public health. This study showed that elderly people are at higher
risk for the acute mortality effects of air pollution. Therefore, cleaner air will
substantially contribute to improved public health in Seoul, given the growing concern
about the adverse effects of air pollution for elderly people.