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      COVID-19 and Ecosyndemic Vulnerability: Implications for El Niño-Sensitive Countries in Latin America

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          Abstract

          Latin America has emerged as an epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador report some of the highest COVID-19 rates of incidence and deaths in the region. These countries also face synergistic threats from multiple infectious diseases (that is, ecosyndemic) and quasi-periodic El Niño-related hazards every few years. For example, Peru, which is highly sensitive to El Niño, already copes with an ecosyndemic health burden that heightens during and following weather and climate extreme events. Using an ecosyndemic lens, which draws on a multi-disease hazard context of place, this commentary highlights the importance of El Niño as a major factor that not only may aggravate COVID-19 incidence in the future, but also the broader health problem of ecosyndemic vulnerability in Latin America.

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          ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science.

          The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
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            COVID-19 in Latin America: The implications of the first confirmed case in Brazil

            Over the past weeks the spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1], has been steady in Asia and other regions in the world. Latin America was an exception until February 25, 2020, when the Brazilian Ministry of Health, confirmed the first case. This first case was a Brazilian man, 61 years-old, who traveled from February 9 to 20, 2020, to Lombardy, northern Italy, where a significant outbreak is ongoing. He arrived home on February 21, 2020, and was attended at the Hospital Albert Einstein in São Paulo, Brazil. At this institution, an initial real-time RT-PCR was positive for SARS-CoV-2 and then confirmed by the National Reference Laboratory at the Instituto Adolfo Lutz using the real-time RT-PCR protocol developed by the Institute of Virology at Charité in Berlin, Germany [2]. The established protocol also included now, as part of the Sao Paulo State Health Secretary, metagenomics and immunohistochemistry with PCR, as part of the response plan to COVID-19 outbreak in the city [3]. The patient presented with fever, dry cough, sore throat, and coryza. So far, as of February 27, the patient is well, with mild signs. He received standard precautionary care, and in the meantime, he is isolated at home [4]. Local health authorities are carrying out the identification and tracing of contacts at home, at the hospital, and on the flight. For now, other cases are under investigation in São Paulo, and other cities in Latin America. In addition to the São Paulo State Health Secretary, the Brazilian Society for Infectious Diseases have developed technical recommendations [4]. This is the first case of COVID-19 in the South American region with a population of over 640 million people [5] who have also experienced significant outbreaks of infections which were declared Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHIC), by the World Health Organization (WHO). So it was with Zika in 2016. The Zika outbreak also began in Brazil [6]. In the current scenario, the spread of COVID-19 to other neighboring countries is expected and is probably inevitable in the light of the arrival of suspected cases from Italy, China, and other significantly affected countries. São Paulo is the most populated city in South America, with more than 23 million people and high flight connectivity in the region (Fig. 1 ). Its main airport, the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, is the largest in Brazil, with non-stop passenger flights scheduled to 103 destinations in 30 countries, and 52 domestic flights, connecting not only with major cities in Latin America but also with direct flights to North America, Europe, Africa and the Middle East (Dubai). There are also buses that offer a service to and from the metropolitan centers of Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay and Bolivia. Brazil also connects with the countries of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia through some rail connections. The main seaport of Brazil is in Rio de Janeiro, where many international cruises also arrive. Thus, over the course of the next few days, a significant expansion in the region would be possible. Fig. 1 Flight connections from São Paulo's main international airport, Brazil. Source: flightconnections.com. Fig. 1 The healthcare systems in this region are already fragile [7]. Moreover, fragmentation and segmentation are ongoing challenges for most of these vulnerable systems. Multiple social and economic issues are ongoing and will impact the situation, including the massive exodus from Venezuela to many countries in the region. This human migration is associated with other infectious diseases, such as malaria or measles [8]. The burden that will be imposed on the region, if and when COVID-19 spreads, would be an additional challenge for the healthcare systems and economies in the region, as we faced with Zika and even the Chikungunya outbreaks [9]. For example, there is concern about the availability of intensive care units, that are necessary for at least 20–25% of patients hospitalized with COVID-19—also, the availability of specific diagnostic tests, particularly the real-time RT-PCR is a crucial challenge for early detection of COVID-19 importation and prevention of onward transmission. Even maybe in some countries, cases have been not diagnosed due to lack of availability of specific tests. Are Latin American healthcare systems sufficiently prepared? Probably not, but in general, this is the same in other regions of the world, such as in many parts of Asia and Africa [10]. Although most countries in Latin America are trying to step up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 outbreaks, it will be essential to intensify inter-continental and intra-continental, communication and health workforce training. In the Latin American region, there is a large heterogeneity of political and social development, economic growth, and political capacities. For example, in the Caribbean subregion, countries such as Haiti have a low Human Development Index. In such areas, and Venezuela where a humanitarian crisis had occurred since 2019 spreading measles, diphtheria, and vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, over the region [[11], [12], [13]], the impact of a COVID-19 outbreak will be more devastating than in the more developed economies, such as Brazil or Mexico. Most of the countries in the region are remembering the lessons learned during SARS (2003) and pandemic influenza (2009). Protocols already developed during those crises, including laboratory and patient management, may prove useful in this new situation. Good communication strategies for preventive measures in the population, and in neighboring countries in addition to Brazil, will be essential and this response should be aligned with the recommendations of the WHO. In Latin America, the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) recent epidemiological alert for measles shows that from January 1, 2019 to January 24, 2020, 20,430 confirmed cases of measles were reported, including 19 deaths, in 14 countries: Argentina, Bahamas, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curaçao, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Brazil contributed 88% of the total confirmed cases in the Americas [14]. In the first 4 weeks of 2020, a staggering 125,514 cases of measles were notified. The dengue incidence rate is 12.86 cases/100,000 inhabitants in the region for the ongoing year, including 27 deaths, 12,891 cases confirmed by laboratory and 498 cases classified as severe dengue (0.4%). Countries like Bolivia, Honduras, Mexico and Paraguay have reported an increase of double or triple the number of cases of dengue compared to the same period from the previous year [15]. In this complex epidemiological scenario, we are about to witness a syndemic [16] of measles, dengue, and COVID-19, among others, unfold. The World Health Organization (WHO) has published guidelines encouraging the provision of information to health professionals and the general public. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritized in countries with a moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission, as has already occurred in Brazil. [For the moment of proofs correction of this Editorial –Mar. 1, 2020–, 2 cases have been confirmed in Brazil, but also new 5 confirmed cases were also reported in Mexico (2° country that reported cases), 6 in Ecuador (3°) and 1 in Dominican Republic (4°), summarizing 14 cases in Latin America]. Credit author statement AJRM conceived the idea of the Editorial and wrote the first draft. The rest of the authors reviewed and improved the second draft. All authors approved the final version. Author contributions Conceptualization: AJRM. Writing—original draft preparation: AJRM. Writing—review, and editing: All the authors. Funding source None. Ethical approval Approval was not required. Declaration of competing interest None of the authors has any conflict of interest to declare.All authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the Form for Disclosure of Potential.
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              COVID-19 in Latin America

              Several problems undermine the preparedness of countries in Latin America to face the spread of COVID-19. Talha Burki reports. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has arrived late in South America. On February 25, 2020, Brazil was the first nation in the region to report the disease. Within weeks, countries across the continent had closed their borders and enforced lockdowns. As of April 14, Latin America has registered more than 65 000 cases of COVID-19. Ecuador, in particular, has been badly affected, with reports of corpses left abandoned on the streets. Pandemic preparedness varies across the region and several countries are particularly vulnerable to a destructive outbreak. For example, Guatemala and Haiti have little more than 100 ventilators between them. Mexico has high rates of hypertension, obesity, and diabetes, all of which are risk factors for severe disease after infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). “It is a very difficult situation”, explains Alfonso Rodríguez-Morales, Colombian Association of Infectious Diseases, Colombia. “Obviously the healthcare systems are not trained for coronavirus; we had a little extra time to get ready for the arrival of the disease but some places are really going to struggle.” Thus far, Brazil has recorded the largest number of cases—more than 23 000, as of April 13. The country has a good public healthcare system, and it is experienced in dealing with epidemics. The past few years have seen serious outbreaks of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika. There is also the issue of the favelas, home to around 13 million Brazilians. In the favelas, conditions are crowded and access to clean water is limited. In such circumstances, social distancing and hand-washing are virtually impossible. “The recommendations for preventing infection are based on assumptions that do not apply in the favelas”, said Clare Wenham, Assistant Professor of Global Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK. “It is hard to see how they will be able to prevent infection or control the virus once it has been let loose.” The outlook is similar for slums elsewhere on the continent. Healthcare in Brazil is the responsibility of the municipalities. This includes pandemic preparedness. It means that matters such as the provision of personal protective equipment, rules on social distancing, and testing arrangements vary. But it also limits the influence of President Jair Bolsonaro, which could work in the country's favour. Bolsonaro has repeatedly minimised the threat of COVID-19 and undermined efforts to enforce social distancing. After Bolsonaro returned from an official trip to the USA in early March, 24 members of his delegation tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Instead of going into quarantine, the president attended a public rally. In late March, he issued orders preventing the states from restricting people's movements and removing the requirement for churches to comply with health regulations. Both moves were quickly overturned by the courts. “You have mixed messages in Brazil”, said Wenham. “The president is encouraging people to go out and resume their normal lives, while the mayors and governors are stressing the importance of maintaining quarantine”. Bolsonaro is not the only leader whose behaviour has caused concern. In February 2020, Mexico's president Andrés Manuel López Obrado described COVID-19 as “not even as bad as the flu”. He subsequently urged Mexicans to visit restaurants and diners. Daniel Ortega, president of Nicaragua since 2007, has not been seen in public since March 12. In his absence, his wife and vice-president Rosario Murillo has co-ordinated the response to the pandemic. She has declined to close schools and shops. Nicaragua is the only nation in Central America to have kept its borders open. Even the local football league has not been suspended. Nicaragua has only registered nine cases of COVID-19, a number experts find implausible and might reflect lack of testing. “We have concerns for the lack of social distancing, the convening of mass gatherings. We have concerns about the testing, contact tracing, the reporting of cases. We also have concerns about what we see as inadequate infection prevention and control”, commented Carissa Etienne, director of PAHO, in a virtual press conference. Experts are more optimistic about Cuba. “Cuba is one of the best prepared locations anywhere in the world to deal with an outbreak”, said Wenham. “They have a very strong, integrated healthcare system which can respond the moment an infectious disease is detected.” The contrast with Venezuela is stark. “The situation in Venezuela is critical; when coronavirus hits, it is going to be impossible to contain”, said Tamara Taraciuk Broner, Human Rights Watch, Buenos Aires, Argentina. “Even in hospitals, there are not the facilities for hand-washing with soap.” Aside from a brief interruption in 2016, the Venezuelan government has not published epidemiological data for several years. The healthcare system has all but collapsed. The once-impressive laboratory system has been looted. Some 5 million Venezuelans have fled. “There is an ongoing humanitarian crisis, an access to food crisis, the surveillance system is not running properly, there is very limited diagnostic capacity and very limited access to healthcare”, said Rodríguez-Morales. “Now things are going to become even more complicated for Venezuela with COVID-19.” It is impossible to know how many cases the country has already seen, though the official tally is 171. Rodríguez-Morales worries about testing capacity across the region. “In a country like Colombia, we will need to run 500 tests per day”, he told The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Brazil has the advantage of a sizeable biotech industry. But it is not clear whether this will be enough to meet the expected demand. The health ministry predicts that by the peak of epidemic, Brazil will have to process 30 000–50 000 tests per day. Its current capacity is 6700 tests per day. Diagnostics are mostly centralised in Latin America. “Tests are run by the national institutes of health; very few countries run regional, local, or university laboratories”, explains Rodríguez-Morales. “But they are going to have to find ways to increase capacity, and in some places that will be a difficult and complicated task”. An ongoing dengue outbreak, which infected more than 3 million people in the Americas last year, further complicates matters. It is too early to tell how SARS-CoV-2 and dengue virus infection will interact with one another. In any case, addressing two epidemics is a major task. “Brazil has an excellent public health system, but it cannot cope with competing crises”, said Wenham. Cases of COVID-19 and dengue are likely to peak at the same time. There are also questions over how vector control can be effectively managed during a lockdown. “We could easily end up in a situation where there is a surge of all vector-borne diseases”, said Wenham. In addition to these problems, Latin America has some of the most overcrowded prisons in the world. Thousands of prisoners have yet to face trial. Brazil alone has incarcerated 773 000 people, one-third of whom are in a pretrial detention. Rates of tuberculosis among prisoners in the country are 35 times higher than in the general population. Haiti's detention facilities have an occupancy rate of 450%. Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Chile are taking steps to reduce their prison populations in light of the pending epidemic. Nonetheless, the prospects for South America's prisoners are bleak. The coming weeks will show if Latin America can cope with the increase in cases of COVID-19, but it is expected that the death toll will be high. © 2020 Flickr – Agencia Brasilia 2020 Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                ivan.cxa@gmail.com
                Journal
                Int J Disaster Risk Sci
                International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
                Beijing Normal University Press (Beijing )
                2095-0055
                2192-6395
                13 November 2020
                13 November 2020
                : 1-10
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.241116.1, ISNI 0000000107903411, Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences, , University of Colorado Denver, ; Denver, CO 80217 USA
                [2 ]GRID grid.266190.a, ISNI 0000000096214564, Consortium for Capacity Building, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), , University of Colorado Boulder, ; Boulder, CO 80308 USA
                [3 ]GRID grid.266877.a, ISNI 0000 0001 2097 3086, Department of Geography, GIS, and Sustainability, , University of Northern Colorado, ; Greeley, CO 80639 USA
                Article
                318
                10.1007/s13753-020-00318-2
                7662729
                359bf8a3-46fd-4864-8a59-b8b6298ef8ad
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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                : 2 November 2020
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                coronavirus,covid-19,ecosyndemic,el niño,el niño-southern oscillation,infectious disease vulnerability,latin america

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