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      A Time Series Analysis of Associations between Daily Temperature and Crime Events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

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      Journal of Urban Health
      Springer Nature

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          Abstract

          <p class="first" id="Par1">Urban crime may be an important but overlooked public health impact of rising ambient temperatures. We conducted a time series analysis of associations between temperature and crimes in Philadelphia, PA, for years 2006–2015. We obtained daily crime data from the Philadelphia Police Department, and hourly temperature and dew point data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. We calculated the mean daily heat index and daily deviations from each year’s seasonal mean heat index value. We used generalized additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, adjusted for day of the week, public holiday, and long-term trends and seasonality, to estimate relative rates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals. We found that the strongest associations were with violent crime and disorderly conduct. For example, relative to the median of the distribution of mean daily heat index values, the rate of violent crimes was 9% (95% CI 6–12%) higher when the mean daily heat index was at the 99th percentile of the distribution. There was a positive, linear relationship between deviations of the daily mean heat index from the seasonal mean and rates of violent crime and disorderly conduct, especially in cold months. Overall, these analyses suggest that disorderly conduct and violent crimes are highest when temperatures are comfortable, especially during cold months. This work provides important information regarding the temporal patterns of crime activity. </p><div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="d3933899e121"> <!-- named anchor --> </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d3933899e122">Electronic supplementary material</h5> <p id="d3933899e124">The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11524-017-0181-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. </p> </div>

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          Most cited references19

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          Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate.

          It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.
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            Temperature and aggression: ubiquitous effects of heat on occurrence of human violence.

            Outlines 5 models of the temperature-aggression hypothesis: negative affect escape, simple negative affect, excitation transfer/misattribution, cognitive neoassociation, and physiological-thermoregulatory. Reviews relevant studies. Aggression measures include violent crime, spouse abuse, horn-honking, and delivery of electric shock. Analysis levels include geographic regional, seasonal, monthly, and daily variations in aggression, and concomitant temperature-aggression effects in field and laboratory settings. Field studies clearly show that heat increases aggression. Laboratory studies show inconsistencies, possibly because of several artifacts. Specific models have not been adequately tested, but the excitation transfer/misattribution and cognitive neoassociation approaches appear most promising, whereas the negative affect escape appears the least viable. Suggestions for future work are made.
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              The effect of high ambient temperature on emergency room visits.

              The association between temperature and mortality has been widely researched, although the association between temperature and morbidity has been less studied. We examined the association between mean daily apparent temperature and emergency room (ER) visits in California. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design, restricting our data to the warm seasons of 2005-2008 in 16 climate zones. The study population included cases residing within 10 km of meteorologic monitors. Conditional logistic regression models with apparent temperature were applied by climate zone; these models were then combined in meta-analyses to estimate overall effects. Our analyses considered the effects by disease subgroup, race/ethnic group, age group, and potential confounding by air pollutants. More than 1.2 million ER visits were included. Positive associations were found for same-day apparent temperature and ischemic heart disease (% excess risk per 10°F = 1.7 [95% confidence interval = 0.2 to 3.3]), ischemic stroke (2.8 [0.9 to 4.7]), cardiac dysrhythmia (2.8 [0.9 to 4.9]), hypotension (12.7 [8.3 to 17.4]), diabetes (4.3 [2.8 to 5.9]), intestinal infection (6.1 [3.3 to 9.0]), dehydration (25.6 [21.9 to 29.4]), acute renal failure (15.9 [12.7 to 19.3]), and heat illness (393.3 [331.2 to 464.5]). Negative associations were found for aneurysm, hemorrhagic stroke, and hypertension. Most of these estimates remained relatively unchanged after adjusting for air pollutants. Risks often varied by age or racial/ethnic group. Increased temperatures were found to have same-day effects on ER admission for several outcomes. Age and race/ethnicity seemed to modify some of these impacts.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Urban Health
                J Urban Health
                Springer Nature
                1099-3460
                1468-2869
                December 2017
                July 7 2017
                : 94
                : 6
                : 892-900
                Article
                10.1007/s11524-017-0181-y
                5722724
                28687898
                35aebb42-903d-4136-b4e0-2c9bc9c24772
                © 2017

                http://www.springer.com/tdm

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