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      Epidemic Trend of COVID-19 Transmission in India During Lockdown-1 Phase

      research-article
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      Journal of Community Health
      Springer US
      COVID-19, Corona virus, Epidemics, Fatality Rate

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          Abstract

          To assess the current epidemic trend of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 in India, the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 cases in India in terms of Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Case Recovery Rate (CRR) and Mortality rate (MR) COVID-19 have been evaluated during Lockdown-1. The analysis includes (i) epidemic curve of Covid-19 cases (ii) demographic analysis (iii) calculation of the CFR and CRR by different methods (iv) calculation of MR (v) Geo-temporal analysis (vi) epidemiological transmission factor (vii) evaluation of the effects and impact of infection, prevention and control in India. A total of 10,815 COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported in 31 states/union territories as of April 14, 2020 with 9272 active cases (85.73%), 1190 cured/discharged (11%), and 353 deaths (3.23%). Among confirmed cases, most cases (59%) are aged 20–49 which is working age in India and 76% cases are reported for men. The median age of Indian COVID-19 patients found to be 39. As of April 14, the CFR per total cases in India is 3.32% and per closed cases is 23.27%. The CRR per total cases in India is 11.00% and per closed cases is 76.72%, which indicates that the recovery rate of COVID-19 is more than the fatality rate in India. The prevention and control measures taken by the state and central governments at all levels and measure of maintenance of social distancing by people have resulted in effective curbing in the COVID-19 transmission in India.

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          Most cited references17

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          Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

          Summary Background A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients. Methods All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not. Findings By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα. Interpretation The 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality. Major gaps in our knowledge of the origin, epidemiology, duration of human transmission, and clinical spectrum of disease need fulfilment by future studies. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission.
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            Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges

            Highlights • Emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China has caused a large global outbreak and major public health issue. • At 9 February 2020, data from the WHO has shown >37 000 confirmed cases in 28 countries (>99% of cases detected in China). • 2019-nCoV is spread by human-to-human transmission via droplets or direct contact. • Infection estimated to have an incubation period of 2–14 days and a basic reproduction number of 2.24–3.58. • Controlling infection to prevent spread of the 2019-nCoV is the primary intervention being used.
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              World Health Organization declares global emergency: A review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

              An unprecedented outbreak of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan City, Hubei province in China emerged in December 2019. A novel coronavirus was identified as the causative agent and was subsequently termed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Considered a relative of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), COVID-19 is caused by a betacoronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 that affects the lower respiratory tract and manifests as pneumonia in humans. Despite rigorous global containment and quarantine efforts, the incidence of COVID-19 continues to rise, with 90,870 laboratory-confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths worldwide. In response to this global outbreak, we summarise the current state of knowledge surrounding COVID-19.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                jyotsnakaushal11@gmail.com , jyotsna.kaushal@chitkara.edu.in
                Journal
                J Community Health
                J Community Health
                Journal of Community Health
                Springer US (New York )
                0094-5145
                1573-3610
                23 June 2020
                : 1-10
                Affiliations
                GRID grid.428245.d, ISNI 0000 0004 1765 3753, Center for Water Sciences, , Chitkara University Institute of Engineering and Technology, Chitkara University, ; Punjab 140401 Rajpura, India
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0241-5627
                Article
                863
                10.1007/s10900-020-00863-3
                7309423
                32578006
                37024391-4c46-4f85-b4e7-280060a5fa1c
                © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

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                Categories
                Original Paper

                Health & Social care
                covid-19,corona virus,epidemics,fatality rate
                Health & Social care
                covid-19, corona virus, epidemics, fatality rate

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