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      Combined Assessment of Cardiac Systolic Dysfunction and Coronary Atherosclerosis Used to Predict Future Cardiac Deaths after Starting Hemodialysis

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          Background/Aims: Identification of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients at high risk for cardiac events is important for clinical dialysis management. The present study determined whether the combination of cardiac function and coronary atherosclerosis could predict future cardiac events after starting renal replacement therapy (RRT). Methods: We prospectively assessed left ventricle ejection fraction (EF) and Gensini score (GS) using angiographic severity of coronary atherosclerosis in 88 consecutive ESRD patients [mean age 62 years; 69 males (78%); 55 patients (64%) with diabetic nephropathy] at the initiation of RRT. EF was analyzed by echocardiogram, and GS was scored by coronary angiography within 3 months after starting RRT. The study end point was cardiac death. For analysis of the association between cardiac death and EF and GS measures, the univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value, and accuracy of event-free prediction were evaluated. Results: Twenty-four patients (27%) had low cardiac function (EF <50%; low EF) and 44 patients (50%) had severe coronary atherosclerosis (GS >15; high GS). During a follow-up period of 3 years, cardiac death occurred in 21 patients (24%). The PPV of low EF and high GS was 42 and 39%, respectively; the highest PPV (53%) was obtained when low EF and high GS were combined. The cumulative survival rate at 5 years in patients with both low EF and high GS was significantly lower than those with high EF and low GS (91 vs. 22%, p < 0.0005). Conclusion: The combined assessment of cardiac function and coronary atherosclerosis at the initiation of RRT strongly predicts future cardiac events.

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          Most cited references 11

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          Poor long-term survival after acute myocardial infarction among patients on long-term dialysis.

          Cardiovascular disease is common in patients on long-term dialysis, and it accounts for 44 percent of overall mortality in this group. We undertook a study to assess long-term survival after acute myocardial infarction among patients in the United States who were receiving long-term dialysis. Patients on dialysis who were hospitalized during the period from 1977 to 1995 for a first myocardial infarction after the initiation of renal-replacement therapy were retrospectively identified from the U.S. Renal Data System data base. Overall mortality and mortality from cardiac causes (including all in-hospital deaths) were estimated by the life-table method. The effect of independent predictors on survival was examined in a Cox regression model with adjustment for existing illnesses. The overall mortality (+/-SE) after acute myocardial infarction among 34,189 patients on long-term dialysis was 59.3+/-0.3 percent at one year, 73.0+/-0.3 percent at two years, and 89.9+/-0.2 percent at five years. The mortality from cardiac causes was 40.8+/-0.3 percent at one year, 51.8+/-0.3 percent at two years, and 70.2+/-0.4 percent at five years. Patients who were older or had diabetes had higher mortality than patients without these characteristics. Adverse outcomes occurred even in patients who had acute myocardial infarction in 1990 through 1995. Also, the mortality rate after myocardial infarction was considerably higher for patients on long-term dialysis than for renal-transplant recipients. Patients on dialysis who have acute myocardial infarction have high mortality from cardiac causes and poor long-term survival.
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            Congestive heart failure in subjects with normal versus reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

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              How to adjust for comorbidity in survival studies in ESRD patients: a comparison of different indices.

              Many patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have additional comorbid conditions. Differences in the presence and severity of these comorbid conditions can bias comparisons between treatment groups. Adjustment for prognostic factors can statistically counterbalance these differences. For this purpose, appropriate weighting of comorbid conditions is necessary. We evaluated three existing methods to score comorbidity in patients with ESRD and compared their ability to predict survival: the Khan, Davies, and Charlson indices. In addition, these three indices were compared with a new index that explicitly incorporates the severity grading of a number of comorbid diseases. In a large Dutch prospective multicenter study (Netherlands Co-operative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis-2), new patients with ESRD were included. Comorbidity was assessed at the start of dialysis therapy. Patient data were randomly allocated to a modeling or testing set. The new index was developed in the modeling set. All indices were evaluated in the testing set. We obtained data for 1,205 patients. Of the three existing indices, the Charlson index had the best discriminating features, with a concordance c statistic of 0.71. The addition of severity grading of several comorbid conditions did not improve discrimination. After combining the comorbidity indices with age, all c statistics improved. These final values ranged from 0.72 to 0.75. We conclude that the Khan, Davies, and Charlson scores are appropriate for expressing the prognostic impact of comorbidity on mortality risk in patients with ESRD provided sufficient adjustment for age is performed. Adding the severity grading of several comorbid conditions will not lead to improved prognostic power. Copyright 2002 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

                Author and article information

                Am J Nephrol
                American Journal of Nephrology
                S. Karger AG
                December 2003
                21 November 2003
                : 23
                : 6
                : 458-465
                aDivision of Dialysis and Nephrology, Nissan Tamagawa Hospital, bThird Department of Internal Medicine, Toho University Ohashi Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
                74538 Am J Nephrol 2003;23:458–465
                © 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel

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                Figures: 1, Tables: 5, References: 31, Pages: 8
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                Original Report: Patient-Oriented, Translational Research


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